In a potential major shift in policy, US military commanders want to keep at least a few thousand US troops in Afghanistan beyond 2016, citing a fragile security situation highlighted by the Taliban's capture of the northern city of Kunduz this week as well as recent militant inroads in the south. Keeping any substantial number of troops in Afghanistan beyond next year would mark a sharp departure from President Barack Obama's existing plan, which would leave only an embassy-based security co-operation presence of about 1,000 military personnel by the end of next year.
Obama has made it a centerpiece of his second-term foreign policy message that he would end the US war in Afghanistan and get American troops out by the time he left office in January 2017. About 9,800 US troops are in Afghanistan. But the top US commander in Afghanistan, Army General John F. Campbell, has given the administration several options for gradually reducing that number over the next 15-months. The options all call for keeping a higher-than-planned troop presence based on his judgement of what it would take to sustain the Afghan army and minimise the chances of losing more ground gained over more than a decade of costly US combat.
The timing of a new decision on US troop levels is unclear. Campbell is scheduled to testify to Congress next week on the security situation, including the effectiveness of Afghan security forces after a tough summer of fighting. The Taliban's take-over of Kunduz, a city of 300,000, marked the militants' first capture of a major city since the US invasion ousted their government 14 years ago in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Republican critics of Obama's approach to transitioning from the wartime occupation of Afghanistan to full Afghan security control called the fall of Kunduz a predictable consequence of Obama's calendar-based troop reductions.
The loss of Kunduz may prove temporary, but it has underscored the fragility of Afghan security and hardened the view of those who favour keeping US troops there beyond 2016. According to US officials, Campbell's options would postpone any major cuts in troop levels this year and give him more leeway on the pace of any reductions next year. The options, officials said, include keeping as many as 8,000 troops there well into next year and maintaining several thousand troops as a counterterrorism force into 2017. The options would allow for a gradual decline in troop numbers over the coming year, depending on the security conditions in Afghanistan and the capabilities of the Afghan forces, who sustained heavy combat losses this year and last.
As far back as March, during top-level meetings at the Camp David presidential retreat, senior administration officials were leaving the door open to a small counterterrorism force in Afghanistan in 2017. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and the Republican-controlled Congress favour extending the US military presence. Ghani has expressed worry about militants affiliated with the Islamic State group trying to gain a wider foothold in his country.
Both Defense Secretary Ash Carter and Secretary of State John Kerry have suggested the importance of the US continuing its counterterrorism missions in Afghanistan, even into 2017. During the Camp David meetings, Kerry said the administration was concerned about reports that Islamic State militants are recruiting in Afghanistan and that some Taliban were rebranding themselves as Islamic State members.
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