The World Trade Organisation cut its forecast for growth in global trade due to emerging markets slowing, and warned an increase in US interest rates and the refugee crisis in Europe could crimp trade growth further. The WTO said falling prices for commodities including oil, and exchange rate fluctuations also led it to cut the forecast for trade growth this year to 2.8 percent from 3.3 percent it forecast in April. It trimmed its 2016 forecast to 3.9 percent from four percent.
Trade had been a major driver of growth in the 1990s and early 2000s, expanding twice as fast as the overall economy, the WTO said, but has grown only at the same rate as gross domestic product for several years. While there have been many bilateral and regional trade deals, nations have failed to make much progress on global agreements that would boost trade and growth.
The WTO said recent financial market volatility and mixed economic data have clouded the outlook for the world economy with risks increasingly on the downside. "These include a sharper-than-expected slowdown in emerging and developing economies, the possibility of destabilising financial flows from an eventual interest rate rise by the US Federal Reserve, and unanticipated costs associated with the migration crisis in Europe," the WTO said in a statement. The biggest revision to its 2015 export forecast was to Asia, cut to 3.1 percent growth from five percent, which was "mostly due to falling intra-regional trade as China's economy has slowed."
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