Most East Asian stock markets are expected to rise over the coming year, but not by enough to wipe out their wide retreat after China unexpectedly devalued its currency in August, according to Reuters polls conducted across the region.
Shanghai's Composite Index, down over 40 percent in the last three months after a parabolic rise that preceded it, is forecast to end 2015 lower than where it started.
Forecasts in the poll taken over the past week put the Shanghai index at 3,075 by end-year - a more than 2,000 point downward revision from the 5,325 forecast in June, and just a few points more than Tuesday's close of 3,038.14. Other stock markets in the region are expected to recover in 2016, although forecasts have been slashed from three months ago following China's dramatic stock market collapse.
If the poll predictions come true, they would come at a time when the world's second-largest economy still figures among the key risks to global growth.
Despite concerns regional trade could take a further hit on worries over China, expectations for easing monetary policy in places like South Korea, Taiwan and India, and improvement in trade outside the continent are likely to push up shares there.
"Asian equities should be supported by accommodative monetary policies, improving global growth and economic reforms," wrote Vivek Misra, Asia equity strategist at Societe Generale in a note to clients.
"We expect many central banks to ease policy in Asia, triggering improving liquidity conditions. De-synchronisation of monetary policy should make Asian assets attractive."
Earlier this month, the US Federal Reserve cited China's slowdown as a key concern for not lifting its interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade.
While Fed Chair Janet Yellen has signalled the central bank still aims to hike interest rates this year, markets are not convinced that will happen, adding to volatility. According to the poll, Taiwan's Taiex index will end the year nearly 5 percent up at 8,500 from Friday's close of 8,132.35, after the central bank cut rates for the first time in six years last week to support economic growth.
But the Taiex will not manage to mark a full-year gain for the first time since 2011, despite easier policy. A recent survey of firms in the country showed a sharp dip in sentiment on their outlook for the next six months too.
Korea's KOSPI index is forecast to end the year up slightly at 2,020 from Friday's close of 1,942.85 but down from 2,200 expected in June. It is then expected to rise to just another 80 points by the mid-2016.
The poll also suggested Hong Kong's Hang Seng index
will gain some 7 percent from now until December after falling close to 13 percent so far this year. It is expected to end the year around 22,000 points, from Tuesday's close of 20,556.60.
India's benchmark stock index, the BSE Sensex, is set to rise slightly over the next year but will trade well below the record highs expected just three months ago. So far, India's government has been unsuccessful in passing key reforms like a goods and service tax and land acquisition bill but a majority of analysts expect those to come through in the coming year. "The Indian economy is on the mend, although the pace of improvement is not uniform. Some greenshoots - reforms should help for medium-term outlook," added Misra in the note.
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