US natural gas futures were near flat on Tuesday on forecasts for ongoing above-normal temperatures expected to keep heating demand low over the next two weeks. Front-month gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed up 2 cents at $2.47 per million British thermal units.
The latest Global Forecast System weather model predicted temperatures in the lower 48 US states would rise over the next two week to even more above-normal levels, keep heating demand low, with population-weighted heating degree days sliding to 77 on Tuesday from 85 on Monday. That compares with a 30-year norm of 116 HDDs.
Thomson Reuters Analytics forecast average consumption from commercial, residential, power and industrial customers in the lower 48 would edge up to 58.1 billion cubic feet per day over the next two weeks. That compares with Monday's 58.0 bcfd forecast and a 30-year norm of 54.5 bcfd. While residential, commercial and industrial customers used less gas than normal for this time of year, power generators continued to burn more of the fuel than normal because it remains relatively cheaper than some forms of coal.
The gas futures' premium over Eastern coal held below $1 per mmBtu for the 36th day in a row, the longest stretch since May. Traders said most generators would continue burning gas as long as the premium remains below $1.50 due to coal's higher environmental and transport costs.
Power generators were expected to use an average 26.5 bcfd of gas over the next two weeks, up from Monday's 25.9 bcfd forecast. That compares with 22.9 bcfd a year earlier and a 30-year norm of 19.5 bcfd. Gas production in the lower 48 was expected to ease to 73.2 bcfd on Tuesday from 73.9 bcfd on Monday, according to Thomson Reuters Analytics. That compared with 71.4 bcfd a year ago and an all-time high of 75.3 bcfd in August.
Net imports from Canada into the United States were expected to ease to 4.7 bcfd on Tuesday from 4.9 bcfd on Monday, while US exports to Mexico would ease to 2.8 bcfd on Tuesday from 2.9 bcfd on Monday. In early estimates, analysts said utilities probably added 99 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended October 2. That compared with builds of 98 bcf in the previous week, 106 bcf a year earlier and a five-year average increase of 92 bcf.
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