In their current guise and with their current features, traditional tablets are starting to struggle to compete with phablets for screen size and with hybrid and 2-in-1 devices for practicality and productivity. In fact, ABI Research is forecasting that in 2016, for the first time, the installed base for tablets will actually drop. "The global installed base of branded tablets will peak around 373 million units at the close of 2015," says Research Director Jeff Orr.
The research and analytics firm puts this fall down to a lack of new first-time buyers entering the market. They're plumping for other types of devices instead, meaning that tablet sales will be mostly to those that are replacing existing slates. However, with the exception of smartphones, consumers are choosing to hold onto all types of digital device for longer. Gartner expects total device shipments - ie, everything from PCs to handsets - to decline by 1% in 2015 to 2.4 billion units. "Replacement activity across all types of devices has decreased," said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. "Users are extending the lifetime of their devices, or deciding not to replace their devices at all."
Gartner also claims that according to a recent study, 44% of current tablet owners are planning to ditch the device in favor of something else and the same is true for 54% of traditional notebook computer owners. "The tablet market is coming under increasing pressure," said Annette Zimmermann, research director at Gartner. "Users of tablets with a screen size between 7 and 8 inches are increasingly not replacing their devices."
Towards a convergence of devices But they are keeping them in the family, so to speak. The latest data on device trends from Global Web Index, published in September shows that 50% of tablet users globally share their devices with at least one other person, meaning that the tablet has become the new family PC.
ABI and Gartner both agree that smartphone sales, particularly those in the phablet category, will remain buoyant and could become the convergence device of choice. "By 2017, we estimate mobile phone shipments will reach the 2 billion mark, and smartphones will represent 89% of the market," said Zimmermann.
Growth in demand for handsets is being driven by consumers in the Asia/Pacific region where one device that can offer the mobility of a phone with the multimedia capabilities of a tablet is increasingly becoming the device of choice.
As for those that need more performance but in a portable package, ABI believes that 2-in-1 and ultraportable PCs will start to find a larger audience, thanks in no small part to the launch of Windows 10 which has corrected all of the annoyances of Windows 8.
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