The nuclear deal Tehran signed with six world powers in July has been approved by the country's ultimate constitutional authority, the Guardians Council, setting the stage for lifting of all nuclear-related economic sanctions imposed on Iran. Not that the legislative journey of the deal was easy and trouble-free; in the Guardians Council it was a hard-won victory for President Hassan Rouhani government, as it was a day before in the parliament. There was stiff opposition by the hardliners at both fora; if in the elected house there were shouts, scuffles and even tears shed by the opposing hardliners, the Council too did not approve the deal unanimously but by an 'absolute majority'. And, yet to be decoded is the message aired by the state television by putting on screen footage of a deep underground tunnel packed with missiles on the very next day of legislation of the nuclear deal by the Iranian parliament. Is it that the Revolutionary Guards command has raised the ante how come it has been ignored, or is it a message that the deal is not going to affect the country's missile programme even when Washington is deadly opposed to it? The officials in Tehran were quoted as saying the deal would not be negatively impacted by the missile facility footage, but the White House says it was in breach of the Security Council resolution on Iran's ballistic missile activities. Since the lifting of the economic sanctions is predicated upon a step-by-step implementation of the deal which includes the IAEA certifications. The Obama administration too had to do some hard fighting to neutralize the Republicans' efforts to block the deal. But, in sum total, the deal is on and is expected to start delivering by the end of the year or next January. A visibly elated President Rouhani believes the deal is "opening of a new chapter for Iran's relationship with the world". And he is right on spot - the deal has sharpened international appetite for business with Tehran at the earliest opportunity, a la the 'Gold Rush'.
The sanctions that Iran is placed under came in a series of rounds, triggered by the sense that earlier sanctions were not crippling enough and need to be tightened. Then there were differing perceptions - some common and others of specific interest to the United States, European Union and the United Nations. First, there was a ban on supply of heavy weaponry and nuclear-related technology, followed by a ban on arms exports, and then an asset freeze on key individuals and companies and transactions with Iranian local and foreign companies. In the final round a ban was imposed on import and purchase of Iran's crude oil and natural gas, resulting in a significant decline of its oil exports by 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) costing the country from $ 4 billion to $ 8 billion per month. The oil sales fell from $ 119 billion in 2011 to $ 72 billion in 2014, President Rouhani told a TV network following the approval of the N-deal by the Guardians Council. The sanctions had their crippling effect on Iranian economy, which kept aggravating with the passage of time undermining the hardliners' stand that whatever the price Iran should not compromise its nuclear weapon capability. Resultantly, the country's GDP shrunk by 1.3 percent in 2013, the rial lost a two-thirds of its value against the US dollar and inflation soared to 40 percent. Not that lifting of sanctions as such would instantly trigger economic revival of Iran; the instant revival would be courtesy the perceived openness and opportunity to do business and investment in the 70 million-strong Iranian market. And no less critical to the emerging scenario is expected geo-strategic and geo-political fallout from the deal, which tends to cast Iran in a new role and hence added expectations as a regional power, as against what it was since the Islamic Revolution in the eyes of most of the West. Will it try to become a regional bully, as quite a few Arab states apprehend, or get engaged in nation-building and economic revival - which given President Rouhani's positive politics is most likely, though challenges to him from the home front are no less daunting.
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