Rainfall in Vietnam's coffee belt has delayed the harvest and disrupted drying in the world's top robusta producer, but fresh beans plus the country's huge stocks will be sufficient for loading, traders said on Tuesday. The rainy season often ends during the first 10 days of November in the Central Highlands coffee belt, allowing growers to begin the harvest on a large scale.
"What they have picked is still small, partly because of the rain," said director Tran Duc Tho of Duc Nguyen Coffee Co, an export firm based in Daklak, the country's largest growing province. Supplies could pick up in two weeks, he said. Fresh beans of the 2015/2016 crop will be ready for loading later this month, which will help boost the country's export volume for November, traders said. They forecast between 90,000 and 110,000 tonnes would be shipped this month, against 95,000 tonnes in a government estimate for the October shipment. But the arrival of new robusta beans and their quality could still be at risk, given rain and cloudy days are expected for most of November, according to weather forecasting firm AccuWeather.
Prolonged rain can worsen the bean quality as it prevents outdoor drying as well as harvesting, which has now been 5-7 percent completed in Daklak, traders said. The cherry picking process often peaks from late November and ends in January while the country's crop year lasts from October to September.
"In December more fresh beans will be shipped," a trader at a European firm in Ho Chi Minh City said. Lower prices in the past days have kept trading slow, while buyers are reluctant to make deals, waiting for fresh beans to come, traders said. London's January robusta coffee settled down $14, or 0.9 percent, at $1,629 per tonne.
The contract has risen nearly 5 percent from a week ago. Robusta beans rose to 35,200-35,600 dong ($1.58-$1.60) per kg on Tuesday in Daklak, from 33,800-34,700 dong a week ago. Differentials narrowed this week, with Vietnamese robusta grade 2, 5 percent black and broken standing at par with London's January or a premium of $20 a tonne, from premiums of $50-$60 a tonne last Tuesday.
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