African currencies week ahead: Naira seen stable after new disclosure rule, Kenya's shilling under pressure

Nigeria's naira is expected to hold steady next week after the central bank enforced new disclosure measures on forex purchases. Falling government debt yields are likely to keep Kenya's shilling under pressure.
NIGERIA: The naira is expected to stay around 230 per dollar after the central bank directed bureau de change operators last week to demand details of a biometric Bank Verification Number (BVN) before selling dollars to their customers. The central bank said the latest measure aimed to ensure the money was used for the purpose specified. The naira was trading at 230 per dollar on the parallel market on Thursday, firmer than 232 last week. On the interbank market, it traded at 199.48 a dollar compared with the previous week's 196.98 closing level. "The BVN requirement is discouraging many people from buying dollars from the bureaux de change ... many of us now have unsold stock of dollars bought from the central bank because we cannot sell without asking our customers to provide the bank verification number," bureau de change operator Harrison Owoh said.
KENYA: Kenya's shilling is seen easing in the next week due to increased dollar demand from importers and falling yields on government securities that will slow offshore dollar inflows, traders said. Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 102.25/35 to the dollar, compared with last Thursday's close of 102.15/25.
"Going into next week, we could see some (dollar) demand coming in (from manufacturers), and as long as Treasury bill rates keep falling, we should see the shilling come under some pressure," a senior trader at one commercial bank said.
ZAMBIA: Zambia's kwacha, which fell to a record low on Tuesday, is expected to hold steady against the dollar next week after the central bank sold dollars in the market to support the embattled currency. At 1150 GMT, commercial banks quoted the currency of Africa's second largest copper producer at 12.7000 per dollar from a close of 12.8000 a week ago.
"The depreciation of the kwacha had taken place in very illiquid market conditions. So it would not take much in the way of supply - either from the BoZ, or other sources - to trigger this reversal," Standard Chartered Bank Africa chief economist Razia Khan said.
GHANA: The cedi could hold flat in the coming week on consistent central bank dollar supplies to match market demands, analysts said. The local currency rebounded in July after slumping nearly 30 percent in the first half of the year. It traded at 3.8000 per dollar at 1100 GMT on Thursday, weakening from 3.6700 a week ago, according to Thomson Reuters data. "There's adequate dollar supply to the market and the cedi is expected to remain stable around the 3.82 level against the dollar," said Joseph Amponsah of Dortis Research in Accra.
UGANDA: Uganda's shilling is expected to hold steady and could possibly strengthen in the next week helped by the central bank mopping up more liquidity after absorbing 217 billion shillings on Thursday. At 0959 GMT commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,520/3,530, weaker than last Thursday's close of 3,400/3,410.
A trader from a leading commercial bank said a central bank repurchase agreement offer on Thursday would possibly "smoothen out the volatility of recent days and stabilise the shilling in the coming week."
TANZANIA: The Tanzanian shilling is expected to strengthen in the days ahead, helped by a slowdown in demand from importers after a general election. Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 2,150/2,160 to the dollar on Thursday, stronger than 2,155/2,165 a week ago. "We expect further appreciation of the shilling next week. There is confidence in the market due to expectations of stability after the general election," said Charles Itembe, a trader at TIB Development Bank. The ruling party won parliamentary and local council elections on October 25.