Russian opportunity

Pakistan-Russia Inter-Government Commission (IGC) will be meeting next week for a 4-day deliberation for promotion of bilateral trade and business leaving behind decades of mistrust. This meeting marks the warming of relations between Pakistan and Russia. After over four decades of relations of mistrust and coldness between Pakistan and Russian the ice between the two seems to be melting and relations are warming up.
The relations between Pakistan and Russia really never picked-up since the establishment of Pakistan. Pakistan alignment with CENTO and SEATO, pushing itself into the American camp, whereas, India opted to be non-aligned and moved closer to the then Soviet Union while remaining on the right side of Americans and in fact remained US favourites too enjoying a stronger position in global affairs. Pakistan remained stuck in the US camp, as the political and military leadership of Pakistan needed US patronage and funding from the World Bank and the IMF to retain its legitimacy and much of survival. Weak state governance and poor economy have positioned Pakistan to remain subservient to the dictates of the US. The Pakistan-Russia relationship reached its nadir during the time of the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan and what followed thereafter in the 1980s.
The global economic and political dynamics have witnessed a revolutionary change in the last five years. Russia has once again re-emerged as a global power which has started to flex muscles in the world affairs and challenge the singular dominance of the US. China, now having achieved economic excellence, has opted to play a more active role in global politics and has nearly aligned itself well with Russia in world affairs. The US is establishing strategic relations with India as a counter balance to China - a job which India has readily opted to accept. In the changing global alignments, India and Russia are no longer the favourite of each other and Russia no longer brackets its relations with Pakistan based on its loyalty to India. On the economic front, the influence of the World Bank and the IMF in the developing countries in Asia is diluting with the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) spearheaded by China and supported by Russia and other states.
Strengthening relationship between Pakistan and Russia is a major shift for both countries amid the changing geopolitical dynamics. The relationship is of value-addition for both the nations. Pakistan's economic and political alignment with China and Central Asian States and strengthening of its strategic position through the economic corridor is of great value to Russia, whereas, after the strategic alignment of the US with India, there is a need for Pakistan to balance its position with new global alignments.
The recent contacts between Pakistan and Russia have signalled a great deal of warmth. Last year, the Russian Defence Minister visited Pakistan and discussed bilateral defence cooperation with the leaders of South Asian countries. Pakistan purchased four Russian MI-35 attack helicopters from Russia. More defence purchase is being negotiated. In June 2015, General Raheel Sharif visited Russia and had strategic discussions with Russian top leadership.
During the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in the city of Ufa, Russia, this year, PM Nawaz Sharif had a warm meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Both desired to have a "multidimensional relationship" which includes trade, defence and energy. In August 2015, Russia approved the draft of the inter-governmental agreement with Pakistan regarding the construction of the North-South Gas Pipeline from Karachi to Lahore. The pipeline is expected to be completed by 2018 to transport 2 billion cubic feet of gas per day. Russia has shown keen interest to be part of the economic corridor, which like China, will also provide access to Russia to the warm waters of the Gulf.
While Pakistan now seems to have decided that it needs to move out of America's sphere of influence global dynamics are now right to seek alternatives, but, the US will remain important to Pakistan for years to come. The US remains the largest foreign direct investor in Pakistan and is the biggest supplier of military aid and equipment to Pakistan. It has already provided $31 billion worth of civilian and military aid as well as reimbursement to Pakistan since 2002. Pakistan is expected to maintain close ties with the US. Last month, PM Nawaz Sharif had a warm meeting with President Obama and currently General Raheel Sharif is visiting the US for crucial meetings on defence matters and issues related to Afghanistan where USA remains to be the main stakeholder.
Pakistan is now in a good position to align itself well with three of the big five global powers - Russia, China and the US - and stretch its muscles from the position of strength rather than continue to be subservient to the dictates of one superpower. This also means for Pakistan to strengthen its economic position by moving out of the yoke of the IMF and similar through good governance in economy, national security, defence and democratic values.
(The writer is Chairman Avant Ventures and former President OICCI and ABB Pakistan)