Australian, New Zealand dollar forecasts a little less bearish

Analysts remain bearish on the outlook for the Australian and New Zealand dollars, but the majority view was the commodity currencies would not have much further to fall. The survey, however, was taken before US Federal Reserve officials this week stoked expectations for an interest rate hike in December. If it does tighten, that could send the US dollar into a new bull phase.
A Reuters poll of 48 analysts found the Aussie dollar was likely to fall to 70 cents on a 12-month horizon, compared with earlier forecasts of 68 cents and 73 cents in October and June, respectively. The local currency plumbed a 6-1/2-year below 69 cents in September, but has since bounced back to $0.7142 helped in part by further easing expected from major central banks from Europe to Japan.
Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) skipped the chance to cut rates, citing prospects for an improvement in economic conditions.
As a result, markets now see only a 20 percent chance of a move in December compared to 72 percent earlier in the week.
A key support for the Antipodean currencies is their attractive bond yields. Australia's 2-year bonds pay 1.9 percent, while its New Zealand counterparts offer 2.6 percent - eye-popping compared with near zero in Japan and the negative yields of Germany and France.
The poll's median forecast was for the Aussie to be at 71 cents in one month, 70 cents in three months and 69 cents in six months. Opinions were vastly different with forecasts ranging from 60 cents to 80 cents in one-year's time.
Likewise, a survey of around 42 analysts has the New Zealand dollar only gradually slipping from its current $0.6607. Forecasts put it at 66 cents in one month, 64 cents in three months, and 63 cents in six and 12 months. But opinions varied widely with forecasts ranging from 53 cents to 71 cents.
The survey was taken before the kiwi hit a one-month low of $0.6574 on Wednesday. The sharp drop was in part due to a soft job report which boosted expectations of further easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in December.