The much touted China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is stirring up a lot of commotion as well as parleys in many circles from various walks of life. Even the indigenous population of Gwadar has opinions ranging from extreme positives to negatives. There are mixed feelings about its implications amongst the general masses. A lobby of politicians is in favour of it and another silently opposing it. How it pans out will ultimately depend on how strategically the cards are played by various stakeholders at national and regional levels.
Good or bad - but consequences there shall be, on the region, of this 3500-kilometre stretch of a corridor. How we capitalise on it could be a make or break situation. But rationally viewing it, there is a potential for massive resource mobility from conception through to completion and then during post completion stages. Statistics indicate that Gwadar is the most poverty struck area in our country. Certainly poverty is the root cause of all the evils germinating in this society which is further fuelled by unemployment and security instability. It is ironic, however, that Balochistan is actually endowed with abundant natural resources such as natural gas, oil, gold, copper reserves and coal and yet lags in comparison on economic development with other units. According to a report, 52% of the region's population lives below poverty line. The coastal areas of Gwadar have the weakest infrastructure, fighting with poverty, lack of basic health and education facilities that are restricted to a princely single 12-bed hospital and a college with 13 classrooms.
The $46 billion that China has committed to invest will be utilised for projects encompassing mining, infrastructure, textiles, energy, etc. This set-up will create an impetus for peripheral infrastructure to be established. There would be mushrooming of Inns, motels, hotels and growth of the entire hospitality industry in the area. We could finally have decent establishments to house our foreign delegates who may visit us off and on (assuming the security side is managed - which will be touched upon shortly). An entire movement will begin around building medical centers and better health facilities for the people who will be integrally involved in this project. Schools will crop up to fill in the learning gaps of the community and that will mobilise scores of teachers who will find new avenues of employment. The doctors will migrate to this part of the country to join the newly created hospitals. The hospitality industry will attract resources and graduates who have specialised in the field of hospitality and have nowhere to go in the saturated metropolitan markets of the country. There will be a boost in the transport industry. The mobilisation of heavy machinery, arrangement of storage facilities such as godowns or specialised cold storage(s) set-up will give a new lease of life to the manufacturing sector.
This flagship project would aim to address the electricity and power shortages by providing energy to the deprived masses and structures of this country which has adversely impacted industry and production at granular level.
This $46 billion project heralds a critical question. Will the labour be sourced from Pakistan or imported from China? Of course, the influx of specialised Chinese labour is expected. Given that there will be Chinese workers, flowing in the country, adequate arrangements will need to be made for their smooth integration into the community. This may involve language centers where translation services are available, recreation sites for our Chinese friends to socialise and integrate. Schools will need to have classes for the Chinese children whilst getting past the language barrier. All of these arrangements will need to be incorporated with a long term view in mind as the families who pour in from China or other parts of Pakistan will at least stay here till 2025 or 2030 at the earliest before they depart and some may even opt to call the newly developed town their new homeland for good - there is potential!
Gwadar would also be recipient to a hike in technology transfer. The new infrastructure will usher in advanced network and technological prowess. The port handling project would become a giant task on its own. This would need to be handled professionally by a well-established resource base. As a result, the port handling responsibility will be best outsourced perhaps to port authorities of the north or south-east Asia like Hong Kong or Singapore.
As evident from the logical flow of expected events, there will be employment opportunities galore and if we don't create a pool of talented employees to fill the multiple resource gaps then chances are that we will have a Chinese invasion happening who will overtake all the indigenous population opportunities who will eventually remain mired in the cycle of poverty and never train to be financially independent citizens. Therefore the leadership of this country needs to be wary of this factor that the Chinese who think 30 years ahead of their time and are meticulously planned due to their practical nature, will take over the local employment stints in no time, if they find us failing to provide the necessary human resource capital. We also need to bear in mind that the Chinese are implementing a similar Eastern Corridor ... that is expected to reduce their transportation cost drastically for their exports to this region.
The Chinese, through impending CPEC creation, will have access to the Middle Eastern markets. Their sagacity has enabled them to look towards Africa which is a wealth mine of potential. They have a very active role in sub-Saharan Africa at present with thousands of workers deployed there in developmental works and assignments. With the advent of the CPEC their routes to this part of the world would be streamlined dramatically. Their current shipments to Africa, the Middle East and Europe from the North Eastern cities of Dalian, Qiangdao, Shanghai and Guangzhou are routed through the Strait of Mallaca entering through either the Suez Canal or going around the Cape of Good Hope which involves higher transportation cost and this will dramatically reduce once the corridor is used for their exports to these markets.
Pakistan needs to make the right moves to preserve a secure environment for this new development to flourish. At this crucial juncture, we can't afford to stand by and watch the show like a silent spectator. This commitment to move forward and ensure a result-oriented action needs to be at a national level and not restrict its association with any single government that has a 5-year mandate; it has to go beyond and include commitment of all future leadership in Islamabad. We need to unite and take concrete measures to fully capitalise on this golden opportunity. If this were to be left to a specific leadership then the entire motto and drive would wane as soon there is change of guards. Our processes need to be relooked at critically to remove the culture of red-tapism and bureaucracy which is a major bottleneck for prosperity especially towards progress of this nature and scale.
The architects of the economic policy need to understand that Pakistan's access to Central Asian Republics (CARs) is instrumental for our growth and at present the route through volatile mountains of Afghanistan especially in relation to CARs is equivalent to entering the jaws of death. This ultimately hampers trade productivity. If this project gets stalled due to any unforeseen reasons then to avoid economic losses, we can possibly look at creating a small by-pass linking with Tajikistan through the narrow border shared with China. By linking with CARs and South Asia, Pakistan can actually tap into a growing economic bloc.
If executed smartly, this corridor would have positive effects by dwarfing the charity that USA has historically poured out in the form of aid. The CPEC promises investments in infrastructure which can potentially enable Pakistan to become financially independent as opposed to relying on aid funds which go towards short-lived expenses.
It is important to realise that this investment of $46 billion is more than two times the amount of foreign direct investment that our country has received in the past decade nearly. The key factor is now in the execution of the plans. The deals have been signed but nothing would change the fate of this country until solid action is taken. If issues like security, lack of transparency, corruption, procedural redundancies will set in then this entire game will go against Pakistan. Therefore we as a nation need to work together with dedication to get rid of these system-based anomalies and set the wheels of investment in motion. It is time that we expand the 13 classroom-based college and multiply the 12-bed hospital into enviable and state-of-the art facilities.
(The writer is a banker)
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