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Most emerging Asian currencies eased on Monday after solid US jobs data cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week for the first time in nearly a decade. China's yuan hovered around a four-month low as the central bank set a weaker daily guidance rate to reflect a strong dollar. The South Korean won slid about 1 percent as foreign investors continued to sell Seoul shares. The Singapore dollar fell on the yuan's weakness.
US employers added 211,000 jobs in November, higher than a forecast of 200,000 increase, data showed on Friday. September and October data was also revised to show 35,000 more jobs than previously reported. Most primary dealers expect the Fed to increase interest rate next week, a Reuters poll showed, while futures markets imply around an 80 percent probability. After the prospective hike, the US central bank is likely to tighten only gradually in 2016, another Reuters survey showed.
Regardless of the Fed's gradual approach, emerging Asian currencies are expected to weaken next year amid uncertainties over China's economic policies, said Alain Bokobza, Societe Generale's head of global asset allocation. "For Asia, there will be a fall against the US dollar. Imagine if they go into very very loose monetary policy... if the renminbi falls 10 percent, you have a sell-off outside in Asia," said Bokobza, referring to China's policymakers.
"Non-yen Asian currencies will fall against USD in 2016 from 5 to 10 percent," Bokobza said at a 2016 outlook media briefing in Singapore. Expectations of weakness in emerging Asian currencies are Societe Generale's strategic outlook for the next 2-3 years, he said. China's economic data due this week, such as trade and industrial output, is expected to show the world's second-largest economy remains sluggish, raising prospects that Beijing will announce more stimulus steps in months ahead.
Offshore funds unloaded the won as foreign investors were net sellers for a fourth consecutive session in Seoul's main stock market. They dumped a combined 1.07 trillion won ($916.9 million) worth of equities during the period, the Korea Exchange data showed. South Korean exporters bought the won on dips for settlements, limiting the currency's downside.
The Malaysian ringgit bucked the regional depreciation as traders continued to cover bearish bets on the worst-performing Asian currency so far this year. Trading was subdued. Sentiment toward the ringgit have been improving. It has made weekly gains in the previous three weeks, thanks in part to tentative rebounds in crude prices in late November, which concerns over Malaysia's falling gas and oil revenues.
Exports grew more than twice as much as expected in October, signs that a weaker currency may help overseas shipments, data showed on Friday. Political uncertainties over a graft scandal linked to Prime Minister Najib Razak and indebted state fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) have been largely factored in, analysts said. Still, the ringgit's gains were limited as oil prices on Monday stayed near their lowest since 2009 as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to keep production high despite depressed demand. The currency is facing chart resistance at 4.1952, a 100-day moving average, analysts said. The currency has been closing daily sessions weaker than the average since May 26, although it tested the level on Friday. 47.11.

Copyright Reuters, 2015

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