Fighting has escalated in Afghanistan as preparations are under way for resumption of Afghan reconciliation talks that fell through before the second round was to be held at Murree last July 31 amid news of Mullah Omar's demise. Launching a major offensive this week, the Taliban attacked a Nato patrol on Monday killing six US soldiers near Kabul, and later captured several important points - including the police headquarter, the governor's office and the intelligence agency's building - in Sangin, a key district in Helmand province a large part of which they already control. This has happened just two months after the Taliban briefly ran over Kunduz in the north. That city was later wrested back by the Afghan army after a fierce fight. Sangin in the past has been the scene of intense fighting between the Taliban and the US-led forces, changing hands several times. This time too it may not be easy for the Taliban to retain control. Afghan forces backed by Nato air support may regain command in the next few days.
Yet these events show that despite the divisions in Taliban ranks caused by the news of Mullah Omar's death and the reports earlier this month that their new chief, Mullah Akhtar Mansour, was injured in an exchange of fire at a senior leaders meeting, the top leadership has power over field commanders. And further that while Mullah Mansour is ready to restart the talks for an 'intra-Afghan understanding' the resort to battle is aimed at strengthening his side's negotiating position. The upsurge in fighting creates problems for President Ashraf Ghani who is already facing trouble from within his own government for pursuing the talks option. Rahmatullah Nabil, chief of the Afghan intelligence agency, National Directorate of Security (NDS), recently resigned over the president's policy to forge closer co-operation with Pakistan, accusing this country of "supporting anti-government elements in Afghanistan." There are others in the government as well as independent opinion leaders who share Nabil's view based on unsavoury experiences of the past. But a lot has changed during the last one year. As the US Special Representative for Afghanistan, Richard Olson, acknowledged while testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee the other day, "Pakistan recognises the fact that to defeat the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, the country needs to take on the Afghan Taliban." It is no longer so simple for Pakistan, he added, "as it may have been in the past, even if they in principle agree, to distinguish between good and bad Taliban." That should help President Ghani, who has invested a lot in improving relations with Pakistan, to deal with his critics.
A major irritant being the alleged presence of the Haqqani Network in North Waziristan, Olson's statement that North Waziristan had "largely been cleaned" - something his country had always wanted - should also remove doubts about Pakistan intentions. Some in Afghanistan may still remain distrustful of Islamabad's stated stance that it supports an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process, but trust may come in due course. In any event, quadruple consultations, hosted most likely by Islamabad, among representatives of the Afghan government, the US, China and Pakistan would be held next month to pave the way for an intra-Afghan dialogue. It is clear at least to the two big outsiders that eventually reconciliation process is the way out of this protracted conflict. Hopefully, a breakthrough will be achieved soon.
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