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Cane mills in Brazil's center-south produced 383,000 tonnes of sugar in the second half of December, up 210 percent from a year ago, as mills try to make up for weeks lost to rain this season, the crushing industry association Unica said on Tuesday.
Although crushing in the region came in at 10.4 million tonnes of cane during the two-week period - roughly on par with market expectations - sugar production surpassed market forecasts, which ranged from 290,000 to 340,000 tonnes. The front-month raw sugar contract hit a fresh two-month low of 13.93 cents per pound after the Unica data stoked worries that supplies from the world's top grower would be higher than previously expected.
Analysts estimate that mills in the region have lost as many as six weeks of crushing to rain since April. In its latest report, Unica said 56 of the region's roughly 360 mills still were harvesting in early January, up from 16 mills a year ago. Unica said 34 of those mills should shut down by the end of the month. Some 20-odd mills could continue to crush through February or March, which would likely keep a lid on sugar prices over the months that are typically the down time for mills between harvests, said Michael McDougall, director of commodities at Societe Generale in New York.
Precipitation continues to intensify as the region moves deeper into height of the rainy season. At this time last year, many mills had ended harvest early with the help of several additional weeks free of rain and a smaller crop due to the drought.
"In 2014/2015, mills ended crushing early, while in the current cycle with the greater volume of cane, mills extended the processing period," Unica Director Antonio de Padua Rodrigues said. Since the season started on April 1, mills in the center-south crushed 594.1 million tonnes of cane, up 5 percent from a year ago.
The region that accounts for 90 percent of Brazil's cane output produced 30.56 million tonnes of sugar and 27.17 billion liters of ethanol through December. That compares with 31.95 million tonnes and 25.91 billion liters last season, respectively, Unica data showed. Through the season, mills have favoured ethanol over sugar, with 41 percent of their cane going to produce the sweetener and 59 percent to the biofuel. In the previous year, 43.2 percent went to sugar and 56.8 percent to ethanol.

Copyright Reuters, 2016

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