African currencies week ahead: African currencies seen weakening over dollar demand

Kenyan's shilling and Zambia's kwacha are seen weaker in the coming week, hurt by rising dollar demand from importers settling end of month payments.
GHANA: Ghana's cedi is expected to hold steady against the dollar next week after the central bank kept its benchmark lending rate unchanged this week, analysts say. After weakening nearly 4 percent in the first three weeks of January on seasonal dollar demand from local importers and speculative buyers, the cedi has been fairly stable this week.
It was quoted at 3.9500 to the dollar at 1130 GMT on Thursday, compared with last week's 3.9200-3.9800 band. "Some level of stability is expected within the week ahead owing to slowing appetite for the greenback and reviving confidence in the cedi as a store of value, especially after the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) held the policy rate unchanged," analyst Joseph Biggles Amponsah of Dortis Research said.
ZAMBIA: The kwacha is likely to be vulnerable next week after month-end conversions to pay salaries and other obligations. At 1013 GMT on Thursday, commercial banks quoted the currency of Africa's second biggest copper producer at 11.2400 per dollar, marginally firmer than a close of 11.2600 a week ago. "Dollar supply has generally been lower than demand and with month-end conversions ending this week, the kwacha should come under a bit of pressure," one commercial bank trader said.
KENYA: The Kenyan shilling is also seen a touch weaker in the coming week as importers settle end of month payments.
Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 102.20/30 to the dollar, a touch stronger than last Thursday's close of 102.30/40. "Tomorrow and next week we are expecting end of month (dollar) demand to kick in," said one Nairobi-based trader. The shilling has been stable this year after weakening 11 percent against the dollar last year.
NIGERIA: The naira was seen falling back in the week ahead unless a major step is taken to inject liquidity, traders said. On Tuesday, the central bank rejected calls to relax its forex rules, prompting the naira to weaken further to 306 on Thursday from 300 a dollar on Tuesday on the parallel market. The naira remains stable on the official interbank market around the 197 a dollar peg rate.
"The market was disappointed by the outcome of the MPC meeting. Coupled with the scarcity of dollars in the market, the naira is heading toward another sharp fall in the coming days," said the head of Nigeria's Bureau de Change association, Aminu Gwadabe. Nigeria pegged its exchange rate at 197 to the dollar in February last year and halted dollar sales to Bureaux de change operators.
UGANDA: The Ugandan shilling is forecast to trade with a marginal appreciation bias as commercial banks look to cover short positions. At 1248 GMT commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,475/3,485, weaker than last Thursday's close of 3,465/3,475. "I am expecting some activity in terms of short position covering by banks that could yield a bit of pressure on the shilling," said a trader at a leading commercial bank.
TANZANIA: The Tanzanian shilling is expected to hold steady next week and could gain ground marginally against the dollar. Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 2,183/2,193 to the dollar on Thursday, stronger than 2,185/2,195 a week ago. "There are some inflows mainly from mining companies and the tourism sector. The outlook is that of stability for the local currency or a slight appreciation," said Moses Kawiche, a trader at CRDB Bank.