Cereal crops in the European Union were generally in good condition and damage caused by winter cold in countries like Poland and Lithuania would have a limited impact on this year's production, consultancy Strategie Grains said on Thursday. The EU has experienced milder than usual conditions for much of winter so far, raising some concern that cereal crops could grow too fast and be vulnerable to a severe cold snap.
"The winter cereals are mostly in good condition in all the EU's grain producing countries," French-based Strategie Grains said in a monthly report. "Some winterkill is expected in Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Germany and Sweden, but the crop areas affected are small and there will be little impact on overall production levels."
After spells of freezing temperatures in parts of the EU in early and mid-January, the return of seasonal cold in western Europe in the past week should benefit crops by curbing plant development and reducing the risk of parasites going into spring, it said. Rainfall from mid-February was also expected to continue replenishing groundwater in France, Italy and Spain, although soil moisture was still inadequate in eastern Spain, it said.
Nevertheless, Strategie Grains trimmed its forecast of the 2016 soft wheat crop in the 28-country EU to 142.6 million tonnes from 143.1 million in January, mainly due to reduced area estimates in Poland, the Czech Republic and Romania. The production revision took the expected 2016 soft wheat crop further away from a record 150.2 million tonnes estimated for last year.
This year's EU barley crop was pegged at 60.2 million tonnes, up slightly from 60.1 million projected last month and down 1 percent on 2015 production. Forecast production of grain maize, which is entirely sown in spring, was cut to 63.9 million tonnes from 64.6 million in January, mostly due to reduced area estimates in Hungary, Croatia, Italy and France, Strategie Grains said. The revised 2016 maize forecast would nonetheless be 11 percent above a last year's drought-affected harvest that Strategie Grains put at 57.6 million tonnes.
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