African currencies week ahead: Ghana's cedi seen firm on steady dollar inflows, Uganda shilling on the back foot

Ghana's cedi is likely to remain firm in the coming week due to steady interbank dollar inflows, while the Ugandan shilling is expected to weaken due to demand from foreign owned companies as they start to prepare to pay for dividends.
GHANA: Ghana's cedi is expected to remain firm in the week ahead on steady interbank dollar inflows, supported by strong offshore offers to meet quarterly demand from local importers, analysts said.
The local unit was trading at 3.8550 to the greenback by 1035 GMT, slightly down from 3.8450 last week and down 1.45 percent year-to-date. "The cedi is expected to hold firm in the week ahead as the market continues to be adequately supplied with dollars to support importers and others who require dollars to fund foreign payments," said Accra-based Dortis Research analyst Joseph Biggles Amponsah. Ghana's central bank will announce a policy rate decision on Monday and analysts expect the rate to remain unchanged at 26 percent.
UGANDA: The Ugandan shilling is forecast to weaken in the coming days as foreign-owned companies start to buy hard currency as they prepare to pay dividends for last year.
At 1255 GMT commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,370/3,380, weaker than last Thursday's close of 3,345/3,355. "As we come toward the close of the first quarter a lot of foreign owned corporate will be in the market on the demand side," said David Bagambe, a trader at Diamond Trust Bank Uganda.
ZAMBIA: The kwacha may firm versus the dollar next week due to limited local liquidity and increased supply of dollars after the central bank tightened monetary policy.
At 0738 GMT on Thursday, commercial banks quoted the currency of Africa's second-biggest copper producer at 11.3600 per dollar from 11.3650 at which it closed a week ago. "The market remains long dollars owing to an increase in the supply of the greenback," the local unit of South Africa's First National Bank said in a note, predicting trades below 11.3000.
KENYA: Kenya's shilling is expected to hold steady, with a bias to weaken due to month-end importer dollar demand. At 0921 GMT, commercial banks quoted the shilling at 101.40/50 to the dollar, compared with last Thursday's close of 101.60/70.
"The Market is going to be range-bound until the end of month demand. End of month demand could push it towards 102.00," a senior trader at one commercial bank said.
TANZANIA: The Tanzanian shilling is expected to hold steady next week due to a slowdown in demand for the dollar from importers. Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 2,182/2,192 to the dollar on Thursday, stronger than 2,184/2,194 a week ago.
"We expect the shilling to trade at same levels next week. The market it very quiet and the local currency has been stable throughout the month," said CRDB Bank trader Moses Kawiche.
NIGERIA: The Nigerian naira is expected to remain range bound next week as rising global oil prices and the slight increase in the Africa's biggest economy's foreign exchange reserves provide support for the local currency.
The local currency was trading at 325 to the dollar on the parallel market, same level last week, while at the official interbank window, the naira was trading around the peg 197.5 to a dollar rate.
Brent crude rose 52 cents to $40.85 on Wednesday, after finishing up 4.1 percent the previous session on planned talks by Opec members to freeze supply to stabilise prices. "Demand for the dollar has slowed and many buyers are not willing to pay higher for the dollar, while increase in forex reserves has raised confidence the government may no longer be under pressure to devalue the naira," a trader said.