Russia's economic slump is continuing to abate, official data published on Monday suggested, although analysts cautioned the improved figures were flattered by one-off statistical effects. Data showed that retail sales fell by 5.9 percent year-on-year in February, an improvement on declines of 7.3 percent in January and 15.3 percent in December.
Real wages declined by 2.6 percent year-on-year in February, and the statistics service also revised down the size of the decline in real wages in January, to 3.6 percent from 6.1 percent. Russia saw several months of sharp declines in both indicators last year, showing how inflation resulting from a devalued rouble was cutting into household incomes and spending.
However, inflation has recently begun to fall sharply - to 8.1 percent in February from 15 percent in November. Liza Ermolenko, economist at Capital Economics, said the data was encouraging, but the improvement partly reflected one-off calendar effects. "The improvement in last month's Russian activity data was flattered by (extra) working day effects due to the leap year. But even so, the figures provide further evidence that the economy has passed the worst," she said in a note.
This follows better-than-expected industrial production data last week, which economists said may also partly reflect the effects of the leap year. BNP Paribas economist Eldar Vakhitov saw little reason for cheer, however, attributing the improvements seen in February to a favourable base effects, which result from the indicators in question being unusually low one year earlier.
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