US shale oil production is expected to fall by a record amount in May in the seventh straight month of declines, a US government forecast showed on Monday, as fallout from a 21-month price rout appears to be picking up steam. Total output is seen dropping 114,000 barrels per day to 4.84 million bpd, according to the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) drilling productivity report. If correct, that would be the largest monthly decline since records were available in 2007.
Bakken production from North Dakota is expected to fall 31,000 bpd, while production from the Eagle Ford formation is seen dropping 62,000 bpd. Production from the Permian Basin in West Texas is expected to fall 4,000 bpd, according to the data. New well oil production per rig is expected to rise 10 bpd to 767 bpd in the Bakken. It is also expected to rise 10 bpd to 468 bpd in the Permian and another 12 bpd increase to 852 bpd in the Eagle Ford, the EIA forecast showed.
Total natural gas output is forecast to decline for a fifth consecutive month in May to 45.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), the lowest since May 2015, the EIA said. That would be down almost 0.5 bcfd from April, making it the biggest monthly decline since March 2013, it noted. The biggest regional decline was expected to be in Eagle Ford, down 0.2 bcfd from April to 6.2 bcfd in May, the lowest level of output in the basin since March 2014, the EIA said. In the Marcellus formation, the biggest US shale gas field, May output was expected to decline by almost 0.1 bcfd from April to 17.3 bcfd. That would be the third monthly decline in a row. In the Marcellus, located in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, initial production during the first full month for a new well was expected to increase to 11.0 million cubic feet per day in May. That compares with 7.9 mmcfd in May 2015.
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