Ties that don’t bind

Poles apart – that’s where US-Pak relations have been for quite some time now. A brief stopover by Secretary Pompeo could neither benefit nor aggravate things much. While a breakthrough wasn’t expected, the few meetings the two sides had last week in Islamabad has created some goodwill – apparently, the stage is now set for a “reset” in relations. Or in other words, the needle hasn’t moved much.

Divergence between the two sides is getting starker. Over in Pakistan, the civil-military combine is now putting up a united front, suggesting little intent to “fight someone else’s war”. No matter if the billions, which normally came along fighting that war, are lost as a result. Pakistan started pivoting towards China earlier this decade – a security-cum-economic shift that is still underway. That, and Americas’ aggressive diplomacy and aid suspension under Trump, explains why US has had little traction in Islamabad lately.

The US, meanwhile, has tired of its longest war, now 17 years old. The Afghanistan-fatigue had crept in earlier, during the second half of Obama presidency. But under Trump – who had promised during the campaign “We’re going to win so much, you’re going to be so sick and tired of winning” – US generals are on notice to produce results. It is apparent that Trump wants this war to end before he goes into re-election in 2020.

But Pakistan doesn’t look like it is in a hurry to broker any parleys – it’s either a matter of its willingness or capacity, or a mix of both. This approach may well be signaling to the US something on the lines of “You’ve got the clock but we have the time.” The thinking could be that the country can wait a bit longer and let conditions ripe further for a friendly government in Afghanistan. Interestingly, on the issue of long-term stability in the region, Pakistan finds itself closer to China, Iran and Russia than it is to the US.

The US mood started souring on Pakistan since it started viewing Pakistan increasingly through the Afghan lens. Stalemate in Afghanistan is, in fact, the one-point agenda now. Meanwhile, India and the US have become strategic defence partners, apparently aimed at containing China within its neighbourhood. Their bonhomie looks a little fragile these years – but it may endure Trump’s transactional presidency, for the US establishment looks sold on India as a bulwark against Beijing’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.

Under Trump, the US has followed an aggressive approach with Pakistan. It includes US cornering Pakistan at the FATF and threatening to make it difficult for the country to access IMF financing. What could be next in the playbook of economic arm-twisting? Remember, Pakistan receives over $2.5 billion in yearly remittances from the US; besides it also runs a roughly $2 billion p.a. trade surplus with the US.

With the Pompeo visit, it looks like Pakistan has gained some time – which is critical for it to sort out its urgent economic needs. But to preserve its economic interests in the medium and long term, Pakistan needs to find some common ground with the US. The latter, which is clearly an ally-in-name-only, has the power – and inclination, as well – to inflict some damage. Let’s see which way the cookie crumbles.