A leading foreign scholar and former diplomats on Tuesday cautioned Pakistan to stay away from becoming part of the Saudi-Iran proxy wars in the Middle East while expressing concerns over the recent declaration issued by the OIC Summit which strongly condemned Tehran's role in that region.
Professor Anatol Lieven, a leading international affairs specialist, Riaz Khokhar, former foreign secretary and Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, ex-diplomat who served as Pakistan ambassador to US, India, China and Russia were speaking at Institute of Policy Reforms (IPRs) panel discussion on 'Pakistan's Neighbourhood: Afghanistan, India, the Middle East'. In the Middle East, Professor Lieven said that Pakistan should not be entangled in the rivalries between countries, adding it was essential that Pakistan balanced its relations between Iran and the Arab sheikhdoms.
He said that it is in Pakistan's vital interest not to get involved in the Saudi-Iran proxy war and keep its focus on the best chance in the real breakthrough in its economic development through the huge Chinese investment in the corridor projects. At present, he pointed out that Pakistan has a real chance to galvanise its economy and enable sustained growth and development based on infrastructure investment from China. Full integration into China's 'One Belt One Road' holds great promise for the future of Pakistan's economy.
He said that the 'One Belt One Road' initiative will make Pakistan a hub of regional connectivity. In order to do so, he said that Pakistan must maintain internal stability and not allow further violence in the country. Already, Pakistan has taken effective measures to ensure security to the Chinese route but it needs security as a whole in the country for greater economic development, he said, adding it was encouraging also to see that all parties in Pakistan have developed internal consensus behind the vital and central interest. These moves need to be strengthened, he further added.
Professor Lieven said that recent developments in Afghanistan obliged him to take a pessimistic view of the Afghan peace process. He based his observations on his recent visits to Afghanistan. He said that Pakistan must continue to support the peace process. With respect to relations with India, he felt that the configuration of forces in the two countries precluded a serious solution to problems. There is, however, commitment on both sides not to escalate the issues, he added. "This is best to be hoped for when "everyone is waiting for everyone else" to move forward," he said, adding it was essential to not allow conflict escalation.
He said there is a need for a quiet dialogue between the intelligence agencies of the two countries, adding there are very significant ramifications if another violent attack was to take place in India. He shared the widely held belief, not only in Pakistan, that India may be supporting some of the activities of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). He said this was a particularly dangerous strategy because of possible links between the TTP and ISIS.
Sharing his views on the situation in the Middle East, Riaz Khokhar said that Pakistan has to be very careful, adding it would have very serious consequences for the country if it involved itself in proxy warS between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Referring to the recent declaration issued at the end of the OIC Summit in Istanbul, in which the forum strongly condemned Iran for its role in the Middle East, the former foreign secretary expressed concerns if Pakistan was also part of the session which approved the final declaration for release.
"It does not make any sense if Pakistan was also involved in the session which gave approval to the final statement," he said. On relations with India, Ambassador Khokhar stated that the present government is not clear as to what kind of relationship it wants with India. Referring to India's active role in the region coupled with other regional developments, he said that this needed a coherent and committed response from Pakistan.
He said that the CPEC presented a real opportunity to the country. However, the Chinese were reportedly concerned about implementation mechanisms in Pakistan. He said that internal security and governance in implementation were critical for the success of the CPEC.
Speaking on the Middle East situation, Ashraf Jehangir Qazi also expressed the same fear that siding with any country in the ongoing proxy war between the Arab and the Ajam will pose serious threats to the country's internal security situation. Earlier, Humayun Akhtar Khan, Chairperson IPR, said that, of late, the region's enduring concerns have become more conspicuous and signs of hope that were visible last year in Afghanistan, especially after the elections, have somewhat dampened.
He said that security in Afghanistan continues to be a concern and last year alone, the country lost about 6,000 security personnel to violence. At the same time, the Taliban have gained more territory, he said, adding recently, renewed battles have taken place in Afghanistan following the Taliban's announced spring offensive.
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