Floods hit Argentine soya, exports may be cut, good weather ahead

Much of Argentina's soya crop has been swamped by 20 days of merciless rain, threatening a loss of supply from the world's top exporter of soyameal livestock feed and its No 3 supplier of beans, meteorologists said on Wednesday. A weak harvest from such a major supplier would put upward pressure on world food prices and be bad news for new President Mauricio Macri, who needs soyabean export tax revenue to help straighten out the fiscal mess left by his predecessor.
Farmers have parked their harvesting combines across much of the Pampas grains belt, waiting for soils to dry out enough to support their 30-tonne weight. The sun came out for the first time in days on Wednesday. Lighter rains are expected next week with sustained dry weather forecast to start next month.
"At this point in the season, we usually have 40 percent of the soya crop harvested. As of today, only 10 percent has been brought in. The delay in harvesting is the worst in 10 years," said German Heinzenknecht, meteorologist with consultancy Applied Climatology. "Soya growers in about half of the main farm belt will not be able to harvest until the first week of May," he said.
LOSSES HARD TO ESTIMATE Most forecasts put Argentina's 2015/16 soya crop at about 60 million tonnes. But the government says 3.3 million tonnes of beans are already lost and the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange is expected to reduce its harvest forecast on Thursday.
Hardest hit areas include northern Buenos Aires, southern Cordoba, central Santa Fe and most of Entre Rios province. Dryer regions are reporting strong yields, which could help offset production losses. "We stopped harvesting 20 days ago because of bad weather; not floods, just too much moisture. We started harvesting again yesterday and will continue today. Yields are looking good," said Santiago del Solar, who manages thousands of hectares in the town of Trenque-Lauquen, western Buenos Aires province.
But the damage is extreme in the worst-hit areas, said Anthony Deane, head of Weather Wise Argentina consultancy. "The water comes up to your knees and it's running water. There's actually a current going toward the Parana River," he said. "As of May we will get much less rain. Between now and then no one knows how much soya is going to be lost because the flood damage is so different from one area to another," Deane added.