Japan's consumer prices were expected to fall for a second straight month in April as energy prices dipped, and exports were seen to drop for a seven consecutive month on weak overseas demand and a strong yen, a Reuters poll found. The core consumer price index (CPI), which includes oil products but excludes volatile fresh food prices, was expected to have fallen 0.4 percent in April from a year ago, the poll of 21 economists showed, accelerating the pace of decline from 0.3 percent in March.
"In addition to energy prices such as gasoline and electricity which have been weighing on consumer prices, the yen's appreciation also pushed down the import price of consumer goods," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, in a report. "There is a good chance that core CPI will stay in slightly negative territory in the first half of this fiscal year."
The internal affairs ministry will announce core CPI at 8:30 am on May 27 (2330 GMT May 26). The poll also found that exports were expected to decline 10.0 percent in April from a year earlier, after a 6.8 percent fall in March. Imports were believed to have dropped 19.0 percent last month from a year earlier, resulting in a trade surplus of 492.8 billion yen ($4.47 billion).
April could mark a third consecutive month of trade surplus if the outcome is as expected. "The trade surplus would be considered largely due to import declines reflecting falling fuel prices," Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, said in the survey. The finance ministry will publish the trade data at 8:50 am on May 23 (2350 GMT May 22). The economy expanded at the fastest pace in a year in the first quarter, thanks in part to a leap year consumption boost, but analysts say the rebound is not strong enough to dispel concerns over a contraction this quarter.
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