Shanghai copper eyes five percent slide in May on stronger dollar, softer demand

Shanghai copper eased on Monday in thin trading, with the London and US bourses shut for a long weekend, and as a stronger dollar and fading Chinese demand dragged prices towards their weakest monthly showing since November. The dollar hit a one-month high against the yen early on Monday and stood tall against other peers after comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen enhanced the prospect of a near-term US interest rate hike.
The US central bank should raise interest rates "in the coming months" if economic growth picks up and the labour market continues to improve, she said on Friday. The dollar's upward trend as a US rate rise nears has weighed on commodity prices that have become more expensive for buyers paying with other currencies. Downside pressures are also growing as China's seasonal copper demand ebbs, said BofA Merrill Lynch in a research note.
"China's physical copper market is extremely weak as the country's imports were running well ahead of consumption year to date. As rebalancing unfolds, we remain cautious on copper, but we see upside in 2H on tight scrap and slow global supply growth." Growth in China's vast manufacturing sector likely stalled in May after slight expansions in the previous two months, a Reuters poll showed, throwing more cold water on hopes that the world's second-largest economy is reviving.
Shanghai Futures Exchange copper fell 0.5 percent to 35,700 yuan ($5,425) a tonne by 0704 GMT. Prices were set for a loss of 4.6 percent for May, the worst weekly performance in half a year. The London Metal Exchange was closed on Monday. LME copper finished Friday up 2.6 percent for the week, paring May's losses to 7 percent. "Base metal prices jumped higher following the promise of action from G7 leaders to support global economic growth," said ANZ in a note.
The Group of Seven industrial powers pledged on Friday to seek strong global growth, while papering over differences on currencies and stimulus policies and expressing concern over North Korea, Russia and maritime disputes involving China. In news, hedge funds and money managers added to their bearish bets in copper, taking the total to the highest since January, in the week to May 24, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The European Commission and China may be near a deal to avoid a dispute at the World Trade Organisation and a wider trade war, diplomats say, but must convince EU lawmakers angry over record Chinese steel output.