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The US dollar hit an eight-day high against the British pound and gained slightly against the euro after two surveys showed that those campaigning for Britain to leave the European Union had moved ahead, while the yen gained on the nervousness. A telephone poll conducted by polling firm ICM showed 45 percent of respondents favoured leaving the EU compared with 42 percent who said they would vote to stay in the bloc.
A separate weekly online poll by ICM published simultaneously showed voters favoured Britain leaving the EU by 47 percent to 44 percent. Last week's ICM poll put the two camps neck and neck at 45 percent each. Analysts said the polls surprised traders who had become complacent about the risk of a British exit, or Brexit, from the EU and hurt the euro given the negative effects that such an exit would likely have on other European countries.
Britons will vote on June 23 on whether to remain in the 28-member EU. The Bank of England has said a Brexit could tips the economy into recession. "Euro was affected by the weakness in cable," said Richard Franulovich, senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corporation in New York, in reference to the weakness in the pound against the dollar. The pound was last down 1.1 percent against the greenback at $1.4476, near an eight-day low of $1.4464. The pound was on track to post its first monthly loss against the dollar in three months in May, of just under 1 percent.
The euro was last down 0.13 percent at $1.1129, down from a session high of $1.1173 hit earlier. The safe-haven yen benefited, with the dollar last down 0.5 percent against the currency at 110.55 yen, near a session low of 110.51 yen touched earlier. "There is a little contagion to other European currencies" from the Brexit polls, said Axel Merk, chief investment officer of Palo Alto, California-based Merk Investments. "If the UK were to leave, it would have ripple effects elsewhere."
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was on track for its biggest gain in six months in May, of 2.9 percent. The dollar remained on track for its biggest monthly gain against the yen in 1-1/2 years, of about 4 percent. Increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in June or July boosted the dollar in May.

Copyright Reuters, 2016

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