Brazil's June soyabean shipments to fall 20 percent

The lineup of ships loading soyabeans at Brazilian ports in June should fall 20 percent, after record exports in the past few months, data from a shipping agency showed, but firm premiums indicate that demand is still strong. Soyabean loadings are forecast at 5.11 million tonnes in June, including ships with unconfirmed departure dates, down from 6.43 million tonnes a year ago, according to Williams agency data compiled by Reuters.
The fall in the lineup is due to the clearing of a rush of ships earlier in the year with the help of better operating conditions at ports, experts said. Brazil's soyabean industry group Abiove projects this year's harvest at a record 98.6 million tonnes and exports in 2016 at a record 55.3 million tonnes. Customs data showed last week that between January and May's third week Brazil has already shipped 28.4 million tonnes, or 51 percent of the total projected.
"We have exported a lot in March and April. That is already enough to point to a slowdown in the near future," said a market analyst at an international trading company in Brazil. Brazil has added capacity to export grains in recent years, mainly in the north of the country, where Amazon Basin facilities have taken pressure off congested ports in the South. Paranagu?, Brazil's second most important soyabean port, has recently installed new and faster ship-loaders.
"Brazil ports have managed to recover from congestion seen in late 2015," said Steve Cachia, senior analyst at CerealPar brokerage. Below-average rains in Santos and Paranagu? ports in April also helped to keep the holds of the ships open and loading for longer periods.
PREMIUMS Export premiums for soyabean cargoes at local ports for June delivery have climbed in past weeks, propelled by slight harvest losses in Brazil and Argentina's flood-related crop woes. "Premiums at ports are behaving unusually (for the post-harvest period), but this is due to reduced harvest estimates in Brazil. Losses in Argentina also help," said the head of market intelligence for a multinational trading house in Sao Paulo.
Soyabean premiums for June delivery in Paranagua port are at 72 cents per bushel, 31 percent above 12 months ago. Brazil was expected to harvest more than 100 million tonnes this year, but irregular rains limited yield potential. At the same time, Argentina's farmers suffered flooding, which may have slashed its soyabean output by up to 8 million tonnes.