US soyabean futures rose on Monday, retracing a portion of last week's heavy declines as the run-up to closely watched US government crop reports put attention back on weather risks and strong export demand, analysts said. Corn futures turned mixed, erasing early advances, while wheat futures fell on harvest reports of large US yields at a time of ample world stocks.
At the Chicago Board of Trade as of 12:05 pm CDT (1705 GMT), the July soyabean contract was up 27-1/2 cents at $11.30-1/2 per bushel. July corn was up 1/2 cent at $3.85 a bushel while July wheat was down 5-1/4 cents at $4.49-1/2 a bushel. Soyabeans climbed on forecasts for a return to hot temperatures in the second half of July.
"It's very uncertain, but in the 16- to 30-day (forecast), we could have some heat come back again. The weather forecast for out in the 16- to 30-day is more threatening on soyabeans than corn," said Don Roose, president of Iowa-based US Commodities. Near-term forecasts called for cooler temperatures, which should benefit the corn crop as it starts to pollinate in the heart of the Corn Belt. However, portions of the region need moisture.
"Timely rains have maintained crop ratings, but deficits continue to build, with previously ample subsoil moisture in decline," Arlan Suderman of INTL FCStone said in a note to clients. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expected the US Department of Agriculture to report a decline in weekly US corn and soyabean condition ratings in its weekly crop progress report after the CBOT close on Monday.
The USDA also is set to release closely watched stocks and plantings estimates on Thursday. Those reports will show the extent to which brisk export demand has whittled down corn and soyabean inventories, and whether farmers planted more soyabeans and less corn than initially expected due to a spring rally in soya prices. "Soyabeans certainly have the tightest balance sheet when you look at corn, beans and wheat," Rabobank senior grains analyst Graydon Chong said. "We see the weather driving that market and we have seen pretty strong Chinese demand."
The USDA confirmed sales of another 150,000 tonnes of US soyabeans to unknown destinations on Monday, following sales announcements of more than 400,000 tonnes on Friday. CBOT wheat fell on harvest pressure, and the spot K.C. hard red winter wheat contract hit a 10-year low at $4.15 a bushel. "Wheat prices are lower as producers continue to bring in some remarkable yields, particularly in the Plains," Suderman said, adding, "The strong dollar and weak euro mean those extra bushels will have a very hard time competing with European wheat on the global market."
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