Indonesia's coffee bean exports are expected to slip by between 5 percent and 10 percent this year from around 400,000 tonnes in 2015, an industry association said on Thursday, amid a forecast of weather-related output declines and growing domestic demand.
"(Exports) will decline from last year because domestic consumption is increasing and production will decline a little," Irfan Anwar, chairman of the Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporters and Industries, told reporters at a coffee industry seminar. Indonesia's coffee production is expected to decline to 600,000 tonnes in 2016 as a result of the La Nina weather phenomenon, said Anwar.
That is down from a revised figure of 620,000 tonnes produced in 2015 and below a March forecast of 700,000 tonnes for this year. La Nina is a cooling of the tropical waters of the Pacific that is a counterpart to the El Nino weather event that is characterised by warmer waters. "The worry is that (coffee plants) will soon be flowering and too much rain could damage the flowers," Anwar said. He added that farmers and the government had started making preparations for La Nina, and were beginning the main harvest early where possible.
Heavy rains have already begun in some coffee producing areas in Sumatra, he said, Indonesia's main robusta-growing region where the main harvest would normally run from September to October. "The rains have started to get heavy. It's not like before," said Anwar. La Nina typically brings rain to Southeast Asia that can disrupt drying and delay coffee cherry picking. Rain can also cause cherries to drop early and lead to black beans, rather than brown, a defect in export specifications.
Rapid expansion of Indonesia's coffee industries and a growing culture of coffee drinkers and outlets in Indonesia have helped support demand for beans. Indonesia is the world's third-biggest robusta producer. There is about 2 million smallholder coffee growers in Indonesia, with robusta accounting for 80 percent and arabica most of the remainder.
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