Lieutenant General Qamar Javed Bajwa is emerging as the strongest candidate to replace Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Gen Raheel Sharif, informed sources told Business Recorder.
According to background discussions with former military generals, defence analysts and political circles, though the final decision rests with the Prime Minister, yet he would not be able to disregard the criteria laid by the military based on the dossiers forwarded to the Prime Minister.
Political pundits maintain that the recent civil-military divide on a number of issues ranging from trade with India, the civilian government's continued silence on Indian spy Yadav, the failure of the government to deal with Panama papers five months down the line, failure to deal with corruption, data manipulation by the Ministry of Finance has led General Raheel Sharif to insist that the Prime Minister endorses his selection for his successor.
The Prime Minister's strategy, these pundits argue, would be to delay the announcement of General Raheel Sharif's successor till such a time that he cannot enforce his will.
The military, according to sources, has already forwarded dossiers of four lieutenant generals to the PM: Lt-Gen Zubair Hayat, Lt Gen Ishfaq Nadeem Ahmed, Lt-Gen Javed Iqbal Ramday and Lt-Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa.
As per the seniority list, Lt-Gen Maqsood Ahmad, currently Military Advisor, Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO) at United Nations, New York, due to retire on 13 January 2017, is the senior most but is serving on extension and, according to the sources, is unlikely to be granted another extension.
In terms of seniority Lt-Gen Zubair Hayat, Chief of General Staff (CGS), followed by Lt Gen Syed Wajid Hussain, Chairman, Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT), Taxila, and Lt Gen Najib Ullah Khan, DG Joint Staff (DG JS), JS HQ, Chaklala, are all due to retire on 13 January 2017.
Lt-Gen Syed Wajid Hussain and Lt Gen Najibullah Khan, according to analysts, are not technically qualified to be appointed as army chief as they have not commanded a corps yet.
Lt-Gen Ishfaq Nadeem Ahmed, Corps Commander Multan, is seventh in the seniority list and would be fifth senior most after the retirement of Rashad Mahmood, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) end of November 2016. As CGS, he accompanied the COAS to attend meetings at the PM House but he was blunt and openly challenged the view of the political leadership and is unlikely to be acceptable to the civilian dispensation.
Lt-Gen Javed Iqbal Ramday, Commander Corps Bahawalpur who had served as president of National Defence University (NDU) is not a strong candidate, according to military sources, for the top military slot.
Lt-Gen Ramday, known to have a close association with Chief Minister Punjab, has reportedly developed some differences with the Prime Minister. However analysts argue that the Prime Minister may not be happy about appointing an army chief who is closer to his brother than to him.
Lt-Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, who is ninth on the seniority list is currently serving at GHQ as Inspector General of Training and Evaluation, a position Gen Sharif held before becoming COAS. He has commanded 10 Corps [Rawalpindi Corps], an active military administrative corps of Pakistan Army, which is responsible for the most sensitive areas of the country and a position that plays a pivotal role as almost the entire active border/hostile areas with India come under its jurisdiction. The entire defence installations including GHQ, AHQ [air headquarters] and NHQ [navel headquarters], PM Secretariat and government security are also under the responsibility of a Commander of 10 Corps.
Lt-Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa also commanded a brigade headquarter as a brigade major, commanded infantry unit as Lt Col, he was Grade-I officer [GSO-I] in 10 Corps headquarters and has also commanded a brigade in an operation area.
As a brigadier, he held a position of COS [chief of staff] at 10 Corps and also commanded formation division in Northern Areas as formation commander (FCNA), besides he also commanded infantry school and as Lt-Gen, he commanded 10 Corps.
Lt-Gen Bajwa, has been posted in 10 Corps thrice and has extensive experience of handling affairs in Kashmir and the Northern Areas and according to the sources he is also apolitical.
Since the military remains heavily engaged in counter-terrorism operations and with the situation on the border with India remaining tense a candidate with a strong profile in dealing with such matters would be the best choice.
However, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, is likely to keep his past experiences with individual military generals as well as his personal likes and dislikes in mind before making his final decision.
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