Pakistan is located in South Asia and has borders with Afghanistan, India, China and Iran, the latter being its immediate western neighbour. The Gulf Middle East, again, is not far away, especially with Pakistan having maritime boundary with Oman. In fact the Arab Gulf countries' special connections with Pakistan are due to deep Islamic factor, provision of economic help and largesse to Pakistan during need, large Pakistan migrant workers, and sizable Arab investment in Pakistan.
However, for the last few years after sanctions on Iran partially lifted in lieu of agreeing to freeze its nuclear programme, the US and Iran have witnessed a rapprochement in relations. Likewise, the US shift of policy towards Asia-Pacific from the ME has occurred due to multiple reasons: lesser dependence on the ME oil, avoiding further entanglements in the ME (after Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya) and continued support to Israel. Although the US military bases and facilities still remain in the Gulf ME, there is a perceptible shift towards Asia-Pacific in the so-called "pivot Asia" policy.
Considering Iran's regional power status, size, internal solidarity and influence in the region, the US is reluctant to openly threaten it anymore, albeit suspicions persist. More ironically, Iran and the US are partners in the coalition against the ISIS terrorist nation-state.
Whatever be the rationale, Pakistan, as a South Asian country and culturally an extension of the Middle East faces a major dilemma: whether to unconditionally remain dependent upon the Arab Gulf nations or to forge closer links with its western neighbour, Iran. Nations in international relations constantly review their policies in light of national interests.
About a year ago, Pakistan politely turned down Saudi request for military involvement against the Shia Houthi rebels in Yemen, yet pledging to remain part of the coalition against terrorism. Not surprisingly, there was reaction from the Arab Gulf states.
Presently, Pakistan wants to more-than-normalise its relations with Iran - with whom relations have remained strained since the last few decades over support to some favoured groups in Afghanistan, close military alignment with the USA and inability to control sectarian killings. Lately Iran has expressed interest to join CPEC: whether it will materialise or not is still moot.
For Pakistan, it poses a Hamletian quandary: how to balance ties with Iran, its immediate Muslim neighbour, as well as the Arab Gulf. While any further estrangement with Iran could mean scuttling or putting on hold building of gas and oil pipelines, business investments, trade, border reforms and normalisation with an Islamic neighbour, cooling off relations with the ME, on the other hand, could mean diminished economic support, possible retrenchment of Pakistani guest workers, and diminution of economic aid and grants.
The ME is in a state of political ferment and heavily polarised along political-cum-religious lines. Thus Pakistan's foreign policy is passing through turbulent times: Pakistan has traditionally avoided taking sides in Muslim fratricidal conflicts. To add to this, its current security environment is precarious: relations with India and Afghanistan are downright unfriendly, tepid relations with Iran persist, the Arab world has high expectations from Pakistan and the US pressure is slowly building up with US-India-Afghanistan security arrangements.
How then to tread the tightrope? As foreign policy is a reflection of a country's domestic policies and strength many things have to be revamped and rectified on the home front: economically, socially and politically. In fact, effective foreign policy begins at home and not in foreign capitals and this cannot be done without first putting own house in order. How to adroitly balance this conundrum will be a major challenge for the PML (N) government.
(The writer is Head of Department of International Relations, National University of Modern Languages (NUML) and former President of Islamabad Policy Research Institute)
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