US natural gas futures on Wednesday fell to the lowest level in more than a week as forecasts for lower demand over the next two weeks offset expectations for supplies to decline. On its last day as the front-month, gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.4 cents, or 1.5 percent, to settle at $2.952 per million British units. That put the contract below the 14-day moving average for the first time in two weeks.
The soon to be front-month November future, meanwhile, lost 4.8 cents to settle at $3.002 per mmBtu. Both the US and European weather models continued to call for more cooling than heating demand over the next two weeks, but with the arrival of more autumn-like temperatures gas usage overall was near its lowest since May.
Demand for gas in the lower 48 US states was expected to slide to 66.5 billion cubic feet per day on average this week from 71.0 bcfd last week before declining further to 64.0 bcfd next week, Thomson Reuters data showed. Demand includes US usage, liquefied natural gas exports and sales to Mexico. Supplies, meanwhile, were expected to decline from 79.8 bcfd last week to 79.2 bcfd this week and 79.0 bcfd next week as US production eases, the Reuters data showed. Supplies include US production and imports from Canada. Forecast demand over the next two weeks was just about one bcfd over normal for this time of year despite much weaker heating demand than usual.
That's because power use to meet air conditioning demand was still higher than normal due to the relatively low cost of gas and the retirement of scores of coal plants over the past several years. Forecast power demand for the next two weeks, however, was lower than during the same time last year. Coal has been cheaper to burn than gas for many generators for much of September. Analysts said data on Thursday would likely show utilities added 55 bcf of gas into storage during the week ended September 23, the lowest build in at least six years.
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