The International Coffee Organization on Friday raised its forecast for the 2015/16 crop, partly reflecting higher output in Colombia, but still saw a global deficit for the season. The ICO predicted a global deficit of 3.3. million bags for 2015/16, the second consecutive deficit year. Global coffee output is now estimated at 148 million bags, up from a prior estimate of 143.3 million bags. This is a 0.9 percent increase from 2014/15 production.
"Colombia has ended 2015/16 with total production of 14 million bags, its highest volume since 1992/93, although the potential development of La Nina could affect the 2016/17 crop, the ICO said in a monthly report. The ICO also said the outlook for Indonesia's coffee crop was less positive for 2016/17 following adverse weather earlier this year. Indonesia produced 11.5 million bags in 2015/16.
Production in world No 1 coffee producer Brazil was estimated to be 48.4 million bags, down 5.4 percent from the previous year as a drought in 2014 reduced robusta production. Top robusta producer Vietnam is seen at 27.5 million bags, up 3.8 percent on the previous year but dry weather at the beginning of the year is seen likely to reduce output in the upcoming 2016/17 season. A steady increase in robusta prices supported by concerns over future supply has driven the coffee market up 5.5 percent in September, the ICO said.
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