Crossing of the LoC

During the last couple of months, the Modi government has intensified shelling across the Line of Control and the Working Boundary causing the loss of many lives. In the bloodiest one-day incident on Monday, seven Pakistani soldiers were martyred at the LoC in Azad Kashmir's Bhimber district. Like on so many previous such occasions, the ISPR described the latest firing by the Indian forces as 'unprovoked' iterating once again that Pakistani troops responded by targeting Indian posts "effectively." (The unprovoked firing claim is difficult to contest considering that at this point in time Pakistan has nothing to gain from inciting violence at either front.)
Why is Narendra Modi doing this? One obvious reason is that he wants to draw international attention away from the grave human rights violations in Kashmir where an indigenous uprising against Indian rule has raged on since July when a young militant Kashmiri leader Burhan Wani was killed by the Indian security forces. The other reason is linked to Modi's brand of politics. As a lifelong adherent of the Hindu extremist organisation, the RSS, he not only shares but as chief minister of Gujarat had also been openly articulating RSS' visceral hatred against Muslims and Pakistan. It may be recalled that one of Modi's consistent electoral campaign promises was that if elected he would "teach Pakistan a lesson." He now seems to want to use the opportunity he has to hold good on that promise. His proclaimed policy is to isolate Pakistan internationally while his National Security Adviser Ajit Doval has publically stated his 'offensive defence' strategy, which practically amounts to a declaration of covert war against this country. It needs to be said though that Pakistan is not entirely without blame for this antagonistic environment. Its policies in the not-so-distant past have been generating widespread anger and indignation in India.
According to the ISPR, during the current year there have been as many as 199 violations on the LoC and 38 on the Working Boundary, with the frequency and intensity increasing since September. A little noticed but appalling detail is that thousands of civilians and military personnel have also been dying in periodic outbreak of violence across the LoC and the Working Boundary. During the recent months alone, at least 26 civilians have been killed and about a hundred others injured on this side. Indian media have been reporting civilian deaths on their side. The overall number of military casualties on Pakistan's side is not known. It is worthwhile to note, however, what a major Indian newspaper The Indian Express recently reported based on a query filed by a rights activist invoking the Right to Information Act. Indian Army's reply dated October 26, according to the report, revealed that since 2001 as many as 4,500 Indian soldiers have lost their lives in cease-fire violations along the LoC and in Jammu and Kashmir. This is a staggering casualty figure for peacetime anywhere in the world. India, of course, can easily absorb the high economic cost of the conflict but the human cost, both civilian and military, on either side cannot, must not, be shrugged off.
There is always the danger of cease-fire violations based on miscalculation leading to even more destructive consequences. Just last September 29, India claimed to have conducted a surgical strike across the LoC in Azad Kashmir. Circumstantial evidence suggested it was only a farce enacted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to show his people that he had taken revenge for Pakistan's alleged involvement in the Uri attack. Many in India itself questioned the government claim. And the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's spokesman told reporters the Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan had not observed any directed evidence of any firing related to the incident. Had there been inconvertible evidence of the purported strike Pakistan would have felt compelled to respond in some manner. Things could have easily spun out of control.
This unending confrontation and bloodletting must be brought to an end. The core cause of trouble, needless to say, is the lingering dispute over Kashmir. An estimated one hundred thousand Kashmiris have been killed since the 1989 uprising that has continued in ebbs and flows all these years. They are still counting their dead. The sensible way forward for the two countries is to return to the negotiations table and sort out all issues of dispute, especially Kashmir. For its part, Islamabad has kept the door open to talks. India's strategic partner, the US, is known to be gently persuading Modi to show restraint; it should also use its influence to nudge him towards the negotiations table. The UN too needs to play a more proactive role for the resolution of Kashmir, one of the oldest unresolved issues on its agenda that has triggered wars between the two rival states and remains a flashpoint that can erupt into a conflagration if the situation in the Valley further aggravates or something untoward happens on the LoC or elsewhere. The outgoing UN Secretary-General's offer to mediate if both Pakistan and India agreed has been rejected by the latter. Although the secretary-general does not have the power to act on his own, he has the moral authority to press for a workable settlement of a bloody dispute that embodies a serious threat to regional peace and security. The new UN chief Antonio Guterres who is to take office on January 1 should employ this authority to end this perpetual conflict and the human suffering it causes.
[email protected]