Brexit of America

The British referendum on leaving European Union and the American Presidential elections resulting in the stunning victory of Donald Trump bear many striking similarities. In both cases, the exit polls went wrong and election were won with a part of electoral largely ignored by the opinion polls; in both cases the voter kept his cards close to his chest and the results were followed by protests, bewilderment and shock waves. Opponents in both the cases could barely comprehend the poll-confounding news. It was a shock to conventional wisdom and conventional politics with no precedence in the recent past.
It was a revolt against elite complacency triggered and engineered by the far-right leaders in the UK and followed by the ones in the US. This revolt in Europe was simmering for a long time; which off and on found its reflection in the shape of protests, notably at the World Economic Forum meetings at Davos where global business and political leaders meet each year.
The election of Trump as America's 45th President will have far greater global impact than the Brexit. It could set in motion and trigger more such surprises. Trump's victory was hailed by Europe's far-right leaders, including the Hungarian Prime Minister. There are deep concerns about how the anti- elitist surge will affect other European votes and how a Trump Presidency might respond to a post-Brexit Britain. Under focus is Italy which will hold a constitutional referendum next month, the Austrians will vote for President and the French are about to hold a presidential primary with center right candidates in the run, whereas France and Germany gear up for general elections next year.
The champions of Brexit were Michael Gove, Secretary of Justice, Boris Johnson former London Mayor and above all Nigel Farage, the populist leader of the UK Independence Party. They are all far-right, anti-immigrants and believers in Britain for British only. Their campaign was built on this rhetoric capitalising on the voice of a thin majority. On the success of Brexit the first statement of Farage was, "We have taken our country back." Whereas the champion of similar phenomenon in America is Trump and his team inclusive of Juliani - the former Mayor of New York.
Trump is reported to have last week told a rally at North Carolina: "It will be an amazing day - it will be called - Brexit plus plus plus! You know what I mean." Many Americans being mostly knowledgeable on local politics might not have comprehended what he meant, but Europeans fully understood where his mindset would lead to.
President Obama, on his visit to Europe early this week, warned against crude nationalism, to comfort the jittery European leaders. The events in Britain and America indeed sent tremors through the political and financial system and the center-left news media. It was a blow to the betting markets and to the pollsters. It was a rejection of the governing political class. And it was delivered by nationalist, older, working-class voters in areas of Britain and America hit hard by globalisation, angered by immigration and anxious about their nation's identity in a 'borderless' world. "At first blush, the parallels with Brexit are uncanny," said Robin Niblett, the director of Chatham House, a research institution in London. "I heard older voters in Florida saying that they 'wanted their country back again,' almost exactly the same language used in England and Wales."
"It's no longer the economy, stupid, it's 'identity, stupid," said Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. "What we are seeing here is what we saw in the Brexit referendum, which is that identity and cultural politics are even bigger determinants of people's politics than we thought possible." "It's the rebellion of the Rust Belt," he said. "The bigger, broader message to the elites is, 'Hey, guys, a large portion of the public is rebelling against the consequences of globalisation.'"
The then British Prime Minister David Cameron and his party failed to recognize the undercurrents and the whispers of the silent majority. Cameron was identified as an elite and part of the establishment who favoured status quo. This single omission cost him his job.
Hillary Clinton too failed to recognize these voices of dissent in her country. She too was branded as an elite linked to the establishment and stuck with old schools of thought and business as usual. Her strategy to bracket herself with Obama, which intensified to an unprecedented level at the tail end of her campaign, strengthened these concerns of electorate. She expended too much energy and spent time on Trump bashing to prove him incapable to govern rather than focusing on the issues of the people and being near to them. She was found wanting by most of the people. This one omission thwarted her bid for Presidency.
Trump heard these voices well and listened to them closely. He decoded them, exploited them and carbon copied them as his election strategy- simple and focused by being populist anti -immigration , jobs for Americans, root out radicals, move out of global responsibilities where America is perceived to be taken for a ride, preference of nationalism over globalisation and above all - America is for American Americans - period. And it worked.
Hillary Clinton's issues of email leaks or Trump's outburst against blacks, Hispanics, females or Muslims did not carry much weight. People considered them trivial and routine election rhetorics over the bigger nationalist agenda they were pursuing.
To the disappointment of Hillary only 30% of blacks voted of which 9% in favour of Trump. Also a good 20% of Hispanics are reported to have voted for Trump.
The power of the media and credentials of poll agencies went wrong with little or no influence on the vast majority of voters. It is reported that Reuters/Ipsos national tracking poll before Election Day projected Clinton to lead Trump by 44 percent to 39 percent and gave Clinton 90 percent chance of defeating Trump and termed her on track to achieve the winning figure of 270.
How could so much go wrong; the results question the dynamics of elections in these countries with years of democratic systems and politics of intelligence and research.
With the election of Trump - issues of politics, economy, security, states unification and the social structure of America are expected to undergo a dramatic transformation with global consequences.
But there are serious challenges. It is the Atlantic belt countries which in the first place enforced globalisation to secure cheaper material and manpower from less developed countries to be globally competitive and be able to export their products to emerging and demand-oriented markets such as Mideast, Asia, Mexico, Brazil and other. Balancing nationalism and isolation with economic sustainability will be no easy task.
For Europe, it could mean the start of the end of Nato. But where will this ultimately lead to? But one thing is a reality and that is that President Trump will be dictated by realties on ground. And one such reality is that much of the political and economic power has shifted from the Atlantic to the Pacific. And more of this will happen with the space likely to be provided by America.
(The writer is former President - Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry)