Oil prices were little changed on Thursday ahead of next week's meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) to discuss implementation of its proposed cap on production. Brent crude futures settled up 5 cents at $49.00 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 2 cents at $47.98 at 1928 GMT.
Traders said market activity was low because of the US Thanksgiving holiday and there was a reluctance to take on big price bets amid uncertainty about the planned Opec-led production cut. Opec is due to meet on November 30 to co-ordinate the cut agreed in Algiers in September, potentially with the co-operation of Russia, which is not a member of the group.
Russia could revise down its 2017 oil production plans if a global output freeze comes into force, effectively cutting output by 200,000-300,000 barrels per day (bpd), Energy Minister Alexander Novak said. Opec will probably propose that other producers cut production by 880,000 bpd for six months starting from January 1, Azerbaijan Energy Minister Natig Aliyev was reported as saying in Azeri newspaper Respublika.
But an Opec source told Reuters that Opec has yet to make a final proposal to non-Opec countries on joint production cuts, which will be discussed on November 28 in Vienna. Novak also disputed the 880,000 bpd figure and said that Opec had earlier proposed that non-Opec countries cut output by 500,000 bpd. Meanwhile, Algerian Energy Minister Noureddine Bouterfa will meet his Iranian counterpart Bijan Zanganeh in Tehran on Saturday in an effort to ensure that Opec's third-largest producer is on board, a source told Reuters.
"Despite 13 countries participating, an Iranian rejection to chip in would be more than enough to kill the deal," Tamas Varga, at oil brokerage PVM Oil, said in a note. Most analysts believe that some form of cut will be agreed, but it is uncertain whether it will be enough to prop up a market that has been dogged by a supply overhang for more than two years, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
"We expect Opec will reach an agreement at next week's biannual meeting in Vienna ... If Opec does successfully reach an agreement, prices are likely to test the year high in Brent of $53 per barrel," ANZ bank said in a note to clients. The head of the IEA Fatih Birol told Reuters that even if production is cut, higher prices could prompt US shale oil drillers to massively increase their own output.
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