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Since securing international peace is the United Nations' prime responsibility, Pakistan is keeping the organisation well informed of India's repeated violations along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir. Last week, Ambassador Maleeha Lodhi handed over letters to the UN Secretary General and President of the Security Council on "major escalation" threatening peace in the region. And this past Sunday, Pakistan handed to the UNMOGIP a dossier detailing killing of four children in shelling from across the LoC, with a request to investigate the incident on the basis of provided information. Even before this incident, particularly since the beginning of the latest burst of intifada in Indian-held Kashmir, India has been resorting to unprovoked firing and sometimes shelling by heavy weapons all along the Line of Control and the Working Boundary. Of course, Pakistan would invariably respond, but only when provoked, and exact heavy toll of life on the Indian side. How heavy, the Indians won't know it given Modi government's 'don't-talk-about-it' policy in practice since the backfiring of his 'surgical attacks' bombast. If a steady rise in tension along the common border is part of its 'Cold Start' war doctrine, it would be anybody's guess. But portents are quite striking in nature and scope - not only did it deploy a drone for cross-border surveillance, which was promptly shot down, it also sent its submarine into Pakistan's territorial waters on a spying mission. Is it that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is itching for a wider conflict with Pakistan, or is it just a tactical move to divert international attention from the uprising in IHK? Whatever his motivation, the emerging scenario is pregnant with grave implications for regional peace, a challenge that should invite immediate notice of the United Nations. Having declared it a dispute pending resolution through plebiscite, the organisation owes it to the people of South Asia in general and Kashmir in particular to show up on the scene and move further from its perfunctory stand that let it be resolved through bilateral talks by Pakistan and India. But given India's aggressive posturing that option is no more on the table, thereby obliging the United Nations' prompt intervention.
Prima facie, Narendra Modi's electoral pledge to revive the golden era of Mahabharata has run into heavy waters on two fronts: one, Kashmiris' lingering defiance of Indian rule and two, China's enhanced visibility in South Asia through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and its recent massive trade agreements with Bangladesh. Try hard the Modi establishment may to outbid them but these are hard to be easily wished away. And if it is raising the ante of a wider war then as they say in Punjabi the 'furrowed field would be equally difficult for all to tread'. Not content with committing violations of the ceasefire agreement and stealthily intruding into Pakistan's territorial waters the Indian leaders are now talking of the thing called nuclear. Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar wants his government to replace 'no-first-use' policy with 'responsible use' commitment, a substitution that tends to suggest that should there be another Uri India would respond with nuclear weapons. In fact, Pakistan never believed India was honest about its 'no-first-use' commitment, and has defined its own nuclear doctrine, a part of which warrants use of tactical nuclear weapons against territorial intrusion. But as of today escalation of tension, both along the LoC and common border and in territorial waters of Pakistan is of Indian origin. Pakistan is on the defensive. From Pakistan's perspective, there is no such thing as 'limited war'. And such an eventuality would have its disastrous consequences for the entire world. Not only would it upset the regional power balance, it would also bring crashing down the entire nuclear security and safety compact assiduously built over the last half a century. And, out of all concerned, the one most pointedly accused of looking the other way as India and Pakistan move towards the Armageddon would be the UN Security Council. Under the UN Charter, it is mandated to employ all its resources to defuse inter-state tensions. It is our hope the dossier detailing killing of children in shelling from the Indian side of the LoC would receive due attention of the Council and help precipitate atmospherics that not reduce tensions but also bring Kashmiris' demand for self-determination back on the negotiating table.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2016

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