Strategic thinking

The recent spat between India and Pakistan at the Heart of Asia Conference in Amritsar reflects the state of India-Pakistan relations at a time when tectonic shifts are taking place in the geopolitical positioning in the world. The emergence of China as the world's leading economic and political power coupled with the emergence of protectionist Donald Trump in the United States, emergence of parochial nationalism in Europe, the rise of Modi's Hindutva in India. The rising chaos in the Middle East and the sectarian schism inflicting the Islamic world represent an era of unprecedented change and uncertainty in the world. The global environment coupled with the uncertain and dismal domestic national environment comprising political, economic, social, security and terrorism dimensions, poses unprecedented challenges to national civil and military leadership. The leadership needs to devise national strategies to steer the country away from danger and position it for garnering economic benefits and prosperity for the people of Pakistan. In the new world order Pakistan must emerge as a victor rather than a victim of global trends.
For this purpose clarity of vision and clarity of action is needed from the leadership. Pakistan's survival as a sovereign nation demands that it become a fully developed country by 2050 to claim its rightful place in the Asian Century. In practical terms its economy has to grow at 8 percent plus over the next 35 years. Matching, if not exceeding, the Indian growth rate every year for the foreseeable future. Right now we are falling behind.
To meet this goal, Pakistan has to fully exploit all opportunities that are available and neutralise or contain all threats it faces. But to do this requires that Pakistan assess its strengths and weaknesses, leverage on its strengths and remove its weaknesses. In other words, the leadership has to conduct what in the business world is rightly called the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threat (SWOT) analysis. Based on the SWOT analysis a strategic national response can be designed.
Ask any Pakistani the strengths of the country he or she will certainly mention location as a strength. With the $14 trillion Chinese economy, and the $1.7 trillion Russian economy, situated in the north. The $2 trillion economy of ECO countries in the west, the $1.5 trillion economy of the GCC in the south and the $2 trillion Indian economy to the east, our neighbourhood constitutes a very large regional economy of over $20 trillion with Pakistan at its heart. This opens up many options for Pakistan. Clearly, in a world of connectivity Pakistan will play a central role in connecting and benefiting from this enormous regional economy. Other than location Pakistan's natural endowment of land, people, water, sun and mineral resources can be considered as a considerable potential strength for generating sustainable economic growth.
As far as weaknesses are concerned, the poor state of our national governance and weak institutions rank highest on the weakness scale. The backwardness of our work ethic, the weaknesses of our public and private organisations, corrupt practices, fossilised processes and accountability systems, weak property rights, the weaknesses of our educational and health institutions, the emergence of high cost energy, system inefficiencies, corruption and incompetence plaguing the energy sector has sapped Pakistan's economy and the country's ability to compete in the global economy negating efforts for exports, industrialisation and modernisation.
As far as opportunities are concerned, leveraging on our locational strength and becoming part and parcel of an integrated regional economy can be a game changer. Building connectivity and development of regional economic frameworks that enable free access into the regional economies for our businesses will be critical. This would require effective CPEC implementation, modifying the Pakistan-China free trade agreement to open up the Chinese economy to Pakistan based enterprises, adding an economics dimension to the SCO, rejuvenating the ECO as an economic union, seeking exceptional relationship with the GCC and revitalising SAARC as an effective forum for economic co-operation. This will require excellent diplomatic and economic skills.
Secondly, fully utilising the productive assets of Pakistan in terms of land, water, natural resources presents itself as a big opportunity of growth for Pakistan's economy, but has fallen prey to the national malaise of confusion, conflict, incompetence and government controls. This needs to change. Development and deregulation of Pakistan's internal market economy; enhancing competition and productivity, creating internal connectivity and benefiting from rapid urbanisation can be important engines of growth. This will require reformers par excellence.
As far as threats are concerned, internal extremism, terrorism and Hindutva India have become an existential threat for Pakistan. While the National Action Plan (NAP) was designed to meet the internal extremism and terrorism threat, dealing with Modi's strategy to isolate Pakistan, funding terrorism in Pakistan and pressuring Pakistan on its eastern and western borders needs an effective multipronged diplomatic and quid-pro-quo response. Modi's initiatives are reaching a climax. Co-opting Afghanistan against Pakistan, unleashing a reign of terror in occupied Kashmir and marginalizing the minorities in India is part of the Hindutva agenda.
The latest episode of mistreating Pakistan's de facto foreign minister shows India's venom. Cutting off sporting and people to people contact is almost complete. In this scenario, Pakistan has to show strength and resolve in dealing with Modi's India. We have to go on a diplomatic offensive that exposes Indian and Afghan complicity in destabilising Pakistan, wait for sanity to prevail in India, which could lead to a mutual cessation of hostile actions against each other under international and United Nations auspices.
The SWOT analysis clearly points the way strategies that need to be put into place to achieve Pakistan's objectives for national security and economic prosperity. A five-point strategic economic agenda is suggested to address the weaknesses, meet the threats and grasp the opportunities.
The biggest challenge facing the leadership is how to transform Pakistan's Third World governance institutions to First World forms and practices. This would require a national governance reform plan. The plan would have to be comprehensive and well formulated, with a time-bound implementation mechanism. Monitoring would have to be done at the level of the cabinet or the National Security Council. In a way this is most critical as the ability to nourish opportunities and then reap dividends depends on Pakistan's governance machine, which unfortunately is in a shambles.
The second important challenge is to ensure food and energy security. For this purpose, a national water plan has to be created for the storage and distribution, and methods for efficient use of water resources. Furthermore, water gravity has to be fully utilised for cheap power generation. The irrigation network has to be extended to the arid regions of eastern Sindh, southern Punjab, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and eastern Balochistan. A national water plan is essential if Pakistan has to jump start the rural economy and fuel the growth of both rural and urban economies.
The third challenge is to develop and harness as Pakistan's human resources for participation in national development. Pakistan has the world's youngest population comprising a youth bulge with 60 percent of its people under the age of 25. To convert the youth bulge into a demographic dividend, a national human development plan needs to be incorporated, so that Pakistan population can become a competitive advantage for Pakistan.
The fourth and the biggest opportunity that is becoming quite apparent is the Pakistan-China alliance crafted, moulded and nourished over the last six decades. It is finally blossoming because of the emergence of China a major economic power at par with the USA. It is ripe time to start building an economic alliance with China that encompasses technical, financial, market, commercial and knowledge linkages that are crucial for Pakistan economy to flourish and attain the desired growth rates. This would require integrating the Pakistani economy with the Chinese economy in a China-Pakistan economic integration plan on the pattern of the Turkey-EU partnership or the Mexican-USA partnership.
The fifth strategic initiative has to be a national marketing plan that promotes and internationalises the economic benefits inherent in Pakistan's economy and CPEC, and markets the opportunities globally for attracting American, European, Arab, East Asian, Central Asian and Russian investment and companies. This will make Pakistan an attractive destination for investment, trade and profitability and enhance the role of Pakistan economy as a multiplier for effective foreign policy.
Apart from the National Action Plan that deals with the internal threats and the diplomatic offensive that deals with the Indian threat, the five plans enumerated above need to be formulated and monitored at the highest level to ensure that Pakistan achieves its long-term development goals and a smooth ride in the turbulent yet massively fruitful times looming ahead. (The writer is a former Finance Minister)