US benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields dropped to five-week lows on Friday, pressured by declines in Europe amid persistent political uncertainty and a soft batch of US data that suggested a more mixed outlook for the world's largest economy.
US 10-year yields, which move inversely to prices, lost about 6 basis points on Friday, their largest one-day fall in three weeks. US 30-year bond yields were also on the defensive, declining to two-week lows, as did two-year, five-year and seven-year notes.
In Europe, German two-year yields fell to record lows, while France's 10-year bond yield hit a one-month low at 0.94 percent in a flight to safety. "We remain reluctant to put too much stock into this week's rally as global events steered all interest rates lower," said Jim Vogel, interest rate strategist at FTN Financial in Memphis, Tennessee.
"It wasn't but just three weeks ago that EU and US rates were going on their own paths, and the two can diverge again." France and its looming election remain front and center in terms of political risks for European government bond traders. Investors fear far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen might win the presidential election this year and lead France out of the euro zone. Current polls, however, show Le Pen losing either to centrist Emmanuel Macron or right-wing Francois Fillon, but few people are willing to count her out.
Aside from France, there are also upcoming elections this year in the Netherlands, Germany and possibly Italy. In the United States, a lackluster set of US data also pressured bond yields, with new home sales growing less than expected in January and consumer sentiment easing last month. Overall, the market is still pricing in a rate hike in June, with 65 percent probability, according to the CME's FedWatch.
In afternoon trading, US 10-year notes were up 18/32 in price to yield 2.322 percent, compared with 2.388 percent late Thursday. Yields fell as low as 2.313 percent, the lowest since January 17. US 30-year bond prices also rose, up more than 1 point, yielding 2.958 percent, down from Thursday's 3.023 percent. US 30-year yields also touched a two-week low of 2.955 percent.
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