Tunnelled vision?

The Sharif administration has, when compared to former administrations, been the most optimistic in setting targets - be it targets for annual tax collection, be it allocation for the annual budgeted Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP), be it export targets, be it import targets, or be it bilateral trade targets. The mother of all targets has been set by the incumbent Minister for Planning, Development and Reforms Ahsan Iqbal, with his Visions that typically span two to three five-year tenures that he constantly refers to when the party is out of power and blames the policies of subsequent administrations for failure to achieve his Visions.
Iqbal's Visions, like the targets set by nearly all federal ministries but particularly the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Water and Power, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources are unrealistic given the annual resources available for the purpose and, most tellingly, the lack of appropriate policies that would ensure the achievement of the targets. Take the case of the unrealistic budgeted tax collection targets that are simply too ambitious (read untenable) and are set to compel the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) to strive towards their attainment as per Ishaq Dar the Federal Finance Minister; however, during Dar's four-year stint as the Finance Minister what these targets have achieved, especially during the three years (September 2013 to September 2016) that the country was on an International Monetary Fund Programme, is to delay refunds (that has negatively impacted on exports), collect advance tax (deemed illegal by the tax Ombudsman some years ago), harass the existing taxpayers and, last but not least, rely heavily on indirect taxes, including withholding taxes in the sales tax mode, whose incidence is greater on the poor than on the rich thereby harassing the common man. The tax structure at present remains unfair, inequitable and anomalous and with 42 percent of total revenue collected from petroleum and product imports one wonders why the government is unable to acknowledge that our input costs are just too high to compete internationally.
Federal PSDP according to budget documents was slashed last year by only 5 percent (from the budgeted 700 billion rupees to 661 billion rupees) however, the federal government is held responsible by the provinces for a cut in their Annual Development Plans (ADPs) because of the unrealistic 399 billion rupee target set for provincial surplus which incidentally even Punjab has said it will not meet in the current year. This given Dar's penchant for borrowing from the external banking sector, at high rates of return and very short amortization period that accounts for net outflows in December of last year, would imply external indebtedness reaching unsustainable levels prompting the country to go on yet another IMF programme.
The failure to achieve the export target blamed on the Commerce Minister is attributed to rising refunds, an overvalued rupee to show a containment of interest payments on foreign loans and payment of principal as and when due, and input costs which make our products uncompetitive in the international marketplace. In addition, bilateral targets are also routinely set and the most recent is that set at 5 billion dollars for our trade with Iran announced by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif while meeting the visiting Iranian Foreign Minister. It maybe recalled that Iran has already expressed concern at Pakistan's membership of the Saudi-led force with former Pakistani Chief of Army Staff Raheel Sharif as its head to fight terrorism. One wonders if the trade target would be met in this instance.
Water and Power Ministry's claims coupled with refusal to allow the public access to the electronic board that reveals the actual supply of electricity and managed demand was recently challenged when the country was subjected to load shedding of the same magnitude as during the tenure of the PPP-led coalition government. In addition, experts reveal that the administration has focused on increasing generation but without developing the transmission capacity, the rise in generation would not be able to reach the system.
Accountability and transparency are therefore not the hallmarks of the third tenure of the Sharif administration, also reflected in the 15-year deal with Qatar on import of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Sadly, instead of equating the price of all fuel sources based on their British Thermal Unit - coal, hydel, domestic gas, LNG, nuclear, etc - the Sharif administration began importing LNG as the ultimate solution and now the Punjab industrialists are arguing that it is unfair that Sindh and KPK industrialists have access to domestic gas available at a much lower price compared to imported LNG. Punjab being the main power base of the Sharif administration one wonders how this concern would be dealt with. Already the Prime Minister has abandoned the moratorium on new gas connections given the proximity of the 2018 general elections.
To conclude, the Sharif administration continues to hold informed policy decisions hostage to its desire to claim immediate success which leaves the door wide open only to manipulated data.