Grain industry lobby Coceral has reduced its forecast for cereal production in the European Union this year, mainly due to a drought in Spain, but raised its forecast for the rapeseed crop due to improving prospects in the eastern EU. A prolonged dry period in western Europe, coupled with late frost in April, has led forecasters to scale back harvest estimates for the EU, although rain this month has brought relief to some grain belts.
Soft wheat production in the 28-country EU was now projected to be 142 million tonnes, down from 144.8 million in Coceral's initial forecast in March but still above last year's crop of 135.5 million tonnes. Barley production was now seen at 57.2 million tonnes, compared with 59.6 million previously. This was now below 2016 output of 59.7 million and would be the smallest crop since 2012, Coceral said.
Maize (corn) output was lowered to 60 million tonnes from 61 million, also slipping below last year's level which Coceral estimated at 60.8 million tonnes. "The main reason for the downward revision of the EU's (grain) crop is the recent heat and drought in Spain which have significantly reduced yield potential there," Coceral said in a note accompanying its forecasts. Dry conditions in northeast France, a crop region which had missed out on recent rain, had also dented yield potential, it said, adding spring barley would be most affected.
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