Karachi will become the third most populous city in the world by 2030 as predicted by a latest Euromonitor report, growing 30 percent between now and then. Another report by UNFPA puts Pakistan at the fifth spot for most populous countries in the near future. The fertility rate in the country has reduced but remains higher than peers at 3.5 percent (Bangladesh, India: 2.2%), against a global average of 2.4 percent with data showing that globally the fertility rates have remarkably reduced. If these numbers do not shock folks to the core, consider this, if Pakistan is unable to cut its current population growth rate of 2.4 percent to less than half (comparatively: India is at 1.2%, Bangladesh and Nepal at 1.1%), it will remain a low-income country even in the next 30 years, as predicted by the World Bank’s Country Director. Talk about being stuck in a rut.
Higher population demands more resources, but resources are scarce. The well-known Solow-Swan economic model predicted that countries that will have higher rate of population growth will have lower levels of income per worker in the long run. In fact, the model explains why some countries are rich and others tend to be poor. Experts believe that there is a close relationship between population growth and human development metrics such as poverty, health and nutrition, education, and employment, in that they tend to go in the opposite directions.
What is now increasingly being called the “population bomb” about to explode, this matter has not exactly garnered any public attention, or discourse. Even if one were to be armed with solid economic reasoning, policymakers have not found the right motivation, not least because they face criticism from the religious lobby. In fact, higher population may serve the political elite well as they can then ask for a greater share of the fiscal resources and higher seats in the parliament. The tone then must come from the top, through legislation and an incentive structure for provinces to realign their motivations.
The religious argument could very well be outdated too. Predominantly Muslim countries like Bangladesh, Iran, and Indonesia have implemented family planning programs rather successfully. In fact, dissemination of information came through mosques and religious gatherings, emphasizing on the economic and social benefits of smaller families.
Population control policies need to take education and access hand in hand. The education must start at home through informed and empowered mothers, at schools through curriculum, at medical centers and clinics, and at the mosques which can in fact play a pivotal role since the men of the household make reproductive decisions. Women’s role cannot be underestimated. According to the Global Nutrition Index, nearly 60 percent of the women from the poorest households and 39 percent of the women from the richest households in Pakistan do not have a say in their healthcare. Women simply are not aware of their reproductive rights, and are not part of reproductive decisions. Their education at school and at clinics are fundamental.
There is also a mindset that needs to be fought. Children from the poor households are often considered breadwinners rather than mouths that need to be fed. The cycle of tyranny for these continue as they begin labor at very young ages, face malnutrition, do not have access to education, and in turn never free themselves from the shackles of poverty, and never attain good, sustainable jobs. They carry the legacy forward by having as many children needed for them to become breadwinners.
Earlier in July, the Supreme Court took suo moto notice and formed a committee that would formulate a policy to diffuse the so-called population bomb. Last week, the committee made a series of reasonable recommendations: that public and private health facilities and lady health workers should deliver family planning services and counselling as part of the essential service package. These should be ensured through legislation. Pre-marital counseling should be made mandatory for Nikah registration. Federal and provincial governments should link population programs with social safety net program such as Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) and introduce conditional cash transfers for family planning services and child delivery.
Moreover, the federal government should create a five-year non-lapsable special fund (to the tune of Rs10 billion annually) to implement population curbing policies. The task force also emphasized on creating a national narrative by including health and hygiene as part of the curriculum. While also recommended incentivizing local production of family planning commodities and including them in the essential drug list.
These proposals are important but this is not even the first step. Khan mentioned a few of Pakistan’s socioeconomic failures (high infant mortality, stunting, wasting, hygiene, lack of clean water, malnourishment, lack of education, youth unemployment etc.) in his first speech which are all root causes of higher population growth. This fact alone needs to be acknowledged. A national monitoring body should be established, local governments need to be empowered, and provincial governments need to be given targets. Let not nature take its course, because that would be disastrous.
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