A notification was issued separating the Statistics Division from the Finance Division soon after Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi took oath on 1st August 2017 - a decision fully supported by this newspaper which has consistently maintained that Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) should be made autonomous as few finance ministers have resisted the temptation to manipulate data to show better performance than has been in fact the case. Thus a clear conflict of interest has been evident with PBS under the administrative control of the Ministry of Finance. What is extremely disturbing is that manipulated data has, and continues to compromise the capacity of the Ministry of Finance to take informed policy decisions that would target the problems at hand.
It is unfortunate that Minister of Finance Ishaq Dar, during his over four-year tenure, has been accused of data manipulation on a scale never before seen in this country. This claim has been easily substantiated due to the failure of PBS to: (i) reconcile data released by other government ministries/departments as well as credible industry sources; (ii) manipulating data not from a year before, which may to some extent be justified, but from two years ago to show better performance in comparison to when the portfolio of Finance was held by Dar's predecessor; (iii) consistent failure of PBS officials to meet with those who have challenged its data even though Dar did mention after the budget speech in 2014 that he would direct the relevant office to hold a press conference; and (iv) mention in a quarterly report issued by the State Bank of Pakistan that the discrepancy between the trade figures it has compiled and those the PBS releases on a monthly basis have widened and that there is a need to rationalize and reconcile data.
Given the nature of data manipulation the general perception amongst independent statisticians is that there was little if any finesse employed while manipulating data during the past four years. This implies that the last number was changed without bothering to either reconcile component data (for example cement output had a growth rate that was not backed by construction industry's growth rate) or change the weightage of components of a specific sector (thus while during Dr Hafeez Sheikh's tenure as Finance Minister the weightage of food items in the Consumer Price Index was reduced to show lower inflation during Dar's tenure no such decision was taken). The fact that the PML-N leadership, including the disqualified Prime Minister, continue to cite the doctored macroeconomic data shows that there is still no acknowledgement of the extent of data manipulation and the real state of the economy.
Prime Minister Abbasi has designated Kamran Michael as the Minister for Statistics and while he may not have any expertise in the subject matter of the ministry he now heads what is critical is that he does not interfere or allow anyone else to interfere in data compilation. There is however a real danger that Prime Minister Abbasi may be tempted to manipulate data as this is an election year and the lure to show better performance than is actually the case is at an all time high.
To ensure data integrity, according to experts, an autonomous statistics board be set up, staffed by qualified statisticians and individuals who have no stake in politics. One would hope that Prime Minister Abbasi takes this bold step and be remembered for taking a decision that was in the country's best interest.
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