US Treasury yields rose slightly on Tuesday as investors waited on the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting on Wednesday for new indications on whether an additional interest rate hike is likely this year. The US central bank is widely expected to announce that it will begin paring its bond holdings, with reductions likely to start in the coming months.
Investors will also be watching for signals that the Fed will raise interest rates in December, in addition to any clarity on personnel changes as Fed Chair Janet Yellen's term-end approaches and after the resignation of Vice Chair Stanley Fischer earlier this month. "We will see what Yellen has to say at the press conference regarding the balance sheet, regarding rates, regarding Fischer's resignation and her term, and see how the market takes it," Justin Lederer, an interest rate strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald in New York, said, referring to the news conference Yellen is scheduled to hold following the Fed meeting. Benchmark 10-year notes fell 3/32 in price to yield 2.24 percent, up from 2.23 percent late on Monday.
The Fed will also give its updated economic projections, which will now extend to the year 2020. "We'll see one for 2020 for the first time, so there is an outside chance of some extra volatility there," said Mike Lorizio, a senior fixed income trader at Manulife Asset Management in Boston.
Treasury yields briefly rose earlier on Tuesday after data showed that US import prices recorded their biggest increase in seven months in August as the cost of petroleum surged and there were also signs of a pickup in underlying imported inflation. Expectations that the Fed may raise rates in December have increased since data last Thursday showed that US consumer prices accelerated in August. Interest rate futures traders are pricing in a 58 percent chance of a rate hike in that month, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
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