Palm oil may retrace into a range of 2,537-2,606 ringgit per tonne, before retesting a resistance at 2,905 ringgit in three months, as suggested by its wave pattern and a Fibonacci retracement analysis. The contract is riding on a wave C, the third wave of a presumed three-wave cycle from the August 25, 2015 low of 1,863 ringgit. This wave is capable of eventually travelling to December 16, 2016 high of 3,202 ringgit, the peak of the wave A.
The wave B reversed roughly 61.8 percent of the wave A, as revealed by a Fibonacci retracement analysis on the rise from 1,863 ringgit to 3,202 ringgit. Another retracement analysis on the uptrend from 1,863 ringgit to the March 29, 2016 high of 2,793 ringgit shows that the correction from 2,793 ringgit also ended around the 61.8 percent level of 2,218 ringgit.
Similarly, the uptrend from the June 13 low of 2,425 ringgit failed to extend above a key resistance at 2,905 ringgit, the 61.8 percent retracement on the downtrend from 3,202 ringgit to 2,425 ringgit.
It seems that the contract follows the golden ratio closely whenever it has a decent retracement. The current correction may be deep enough to extend to 2,605 ringgit, a 61.8 percent retracement, or a bit further to 2,536 ringgit.
A break above 2,814 ringgit may signal a resumption of the uptrend towards the range of 3,019-3,202 ringgit.
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