Treasuries outlook: yields drop as inflation data disappoints

US Treasury yields fell to two-week lows on Friday after consumer price data showed still benign inflation, disappointing investors who had expected it to improve. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, consumer prices gained 0.1 percent in September. In the 12 months through September, the so-called core CPI increased 1.7 percent.
The year-on-year core CPI has now advanced by the same margin for five consecutive months. "There is really no fig leaf to cover up this notion that inflation is weak, and it's weak in a very broad sense," said Aaron Kohli, an interest rate strategist at BMO Capital Markets in New York. "The Fed has pointed to inflation bouncing back and there is no data to support that at the moment."
Geopolitical concerns also added a safety bid for Treasuries on Friday after US President Donald Trump chose not to certify that Tehran is complying with the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, in defiance of other world powers, and warned he might ultimately terminate it. Benchmark 10-year notes gained 13/32 in price to yield 2.278 percent, the lowest since September 27, and down from 2.323 percent on Thursday.
Other data on Friday showed that US retail sales recorded their biggest increase in 2-1/2 years in September, likely as reconstruction and clean-up efforts in areas devastated by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma boosted demand for building materials and motor vehicles. Ten-year yields had jumped to 2.402 percent last Friday, the highest level since May 11, after the government's employment report for September showed a rise in wages that boosted expectations for a jump in inflation.
Analysts, however, have said that data was muddied by recent hurricanes. Adverse weather is seen as having impeded lower-income workers from getting to work more than it did higher-income workers. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting released on Wednesday showed that Fed policymakers had a prolonged debate about the prospects of a pickup in inflation and the path of future interest rate rises if it did not. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak on Sunday at an event in Washington on global economic growth.