In the first part of this column, need for a treaty over shared river waters between Pakistan and Afghanistan was stressed, based on the principles of benefit sharing. The following part discusses the possible impact on KP’s agriculture if water flows from Afghan river system reduces drastically.
A cursory look on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s topographical map reveals four major river systems in the region, apart from Indus: Swat, Kabul-Kunar, Kurram, and Gomal rivers. While all of these empty into Indus, only Swat River originates within Pakistani territory.
Since Indus also originates in alien (disputed) territory, KP is primarily a lower riparian in a shared irrigation system, excluding the valleys of Swat and Chitral. As Indus forms the natural border between Punjab and KP, it only directly irrigates the eastern-most out of 34 districts of the north-western province.
Agriculture in districts of Peshawar, Charsadda, Nowshera, Kurram, North Waziristan, Bannu, South Waziristan, Tank, Dera Ismail Khan is irrigated by Kabul, Kurram, and Gomal rivers that originate from the mountains of Afghanistan.
Based on land use statistics published by KP department for agriculture, at 800,163 hectares of cultivated area, these districts constitute over 40 percent of cultivated area in the province on average. Irrigated area in these districts consume 51 percent of province’s canal water supply, and more than two-thirds of groundwater abstracted, underscoring their heavy dependence on water systems to sustain agricultural output.
Similarly, figures published in the KP Crop Statistics for 2015-16 indicate that the districts in question have a significant share in provincial crop output (in tonnage). Over 70 percent of sugarcane, 44 percent of rice, 36 percent of wheat, 40 percent of vegetables, and 45 percent of fruits produced by the province are farmed in districts irrigated by Afghan-origin Rivers.
Despite employing close to half of provincial labour force, at 24 percent agriculture remains a distant second to services sector. The latter contributes more than half of provincial GDP. Poor agricultural output is further denoted by a very high share of culture waste, which stands at 40 percent of cultivable area. In layman terms, this means that out of 2.7 million hectares of potential farming land, less than three-fifths is actually used for cultivation.
Thus, compared to Punjab and Sindh, KP’s agri-economy is noted for its low productivity. Based on conservative estimates, Afghan river-led irrigated districts make up at least one-third of agricultural output. While that may appear insignificant, it is worthwhile to note that KP’s economy already has very high levels of external dependence.
One estimate by Dr. Pasha notes that economic growth in KP over the past decade has largely been led by remittances. About 20 percent of household income in the province is contributed by remittances, both foreign and domestic.
Seen in this context, KP’s homegrown economy appear largely ill-equipped to sustain any external shocks. Decline in water availability will move more people out of agriculture, increasing pressure on domestic migration. This is particularly true for southern districts such as DI Khan and Bannu, which are largely rural in their economic makeup. Lack of a water treaty with Afghanistan also poses a risk to food security of the province, which according to the latest census has an annualized population growth rate of 2.9 percent.
Pashtuns dominate the demographic makeup of regions on both sides of the Durand. Ethnic and tribal ties across the border make it hard to imagine water scarcity becoming a cause of conflict. Moreover, dominance of same political party at both federal and provincial levels removes one obstacle to advocacy for developing a regional water resource sharing mechanism. It is up to the provincial government to lobby the foreign office. If KP ensures water security for future generations, it is time to engage the Afghan government.
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