The world is on track for a 3-degree Celsius rise in global temperatures - a level not seen in 4 million years - but most government plans to help people adapt to coming changes still assume much smaller temperature hikes, experts say. Under the Paris Agreement on climate change, governments have pledged to keep global temperatures to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
And they have drawn up plans to help cities, agriculture and economies cope with worsening floods, droughts, storms and sea level rise based on that. But "we are not safe, because we are moving towards a 3 degrees world, and our governments are not ready," said Harjeet Singh, global lead on climate change for ActionAid International, at the UN climate talks in Bonn this week.
"We don't even have a process by which to assess whether we're safe or not," he charged. "And we're moving towards a very dangerous world where things are going to get more and more scary and complex." A temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius could result in large-scale sea level rise, even more intense and frequent natural disasters, and "dramatic changes" in the availability of water, which would hit food production, predicted Johan Rockstrom, director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre.
Scientists believe temperature rises above 2 degrees Celsius could trigger irreversible melting of the world's ice sheets, and drive other changes - such as the release of frozen methane in the soil - that could further hike the planet's temperature, Rockstrom said. With uncertainty over how much change is ahead, progress on meeting climate "adaptation" goals is difficult to assess, particularly no system to judge that progress is yet in place, according to a UN Environment report published on Wednesday.
"In Paris, countries agreed to adopt (a) global goal on adaptation. If this goal is to be meaningful we need to know if we are making progress in achieving it," Erik Solheim, the head of UN Environment, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. The report aims to help countries try to assess that progress, recognising that the answer "will increase in importance in the coming years", the UN agency noted.
The costs of adaptation in developing countries could range from $140 billion to $300 billion per year by 2030, the agency said, depending on how much is achieved in cutting emissions. But such costs, over time, would "pale in comparison to the increasing costs of climate impacts, the brunt of which would be borne by developing countries," the UN agency noted.
John Firth, the CEO of private consultancy firm Acclimatise, said a move by some of the world's leading banks to assess the risks and opportunities they face in the context of a changing climate could help mobilise cash for developing countries. "This is a game changer. Once you get the banks, financial services and corporates starting to understand what their risks are, that's when you mobilise private sector finance," he said.
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