Underlying US consumer prices increased in October on the back of a pickup in rents and healthcare costs, bolstering the view that a recent disinflationary trend worrying the Federal Reserve probably had ended. The rise in the consumer price index, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, reported by the Labor Department on Wednesday likely clears the way for the US central bank to raise interest rates next month.
October's gain in the so-called core CPI, which measures underlying inflation pressures, could comfort Fed officials concerned that stubbornly low inflation may reflect not only temporary factors but also more persistent developments. "The Fed has struggled this year in determining if the slowdown in core inflation has been due to a confluence of one-offs or more persistent disinflationary forces," said Sarah House, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.
The core CPI rose 0.2 percent in October, also lifted by increases in the cost of used cars and trucks, tobacco, wireless phone services, airline fares, education and motor vehicle insurance. It edged up 0.1 percent in September. October's gain lifted the year-on-year increase in the core CPI to 1.8 percent. The year-on-year core CPI had increased by 1.7 percent for five straight months. Last month, owners' equivalent rent of primary residence climbed 0.3 percent, quickening after September's 0.2 percent increase. The cost of hospital services were up 0.5 percent and prices for doctor visits rose 0.2 percent.
Economists said the increase in healthcare costs suggested the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, probably rose 0.2 percent in October, which would snap five straight monthly 0.1 percent gains. That would raise the year-on-year increase in the core PCE price index to 1.4 percent from 1.3 percent in September. The core PCE price index has consistently undershot the Fed's 2 percent target for more than five years.
The central bank has lifted borrowing costs twice this year and has projected three rate increases in 2018. The government will publish core PCE price index data later this month. Overall consumer prices, however, rose marginally in October as the boost to gasoline prices from hurricane-related disruptions to Gulf Coast oil refineries was unwound. The CPI nudged up 0.1 percent last month after jumping 0.5 percent in September. That lowered the year-on-year increase in the CPI to 2.0 percent from 2.2 percent in September.
Low inflation is, however, helping to underpin consumer spending. In a separate report on Wednesday, the Commerce Department said retail sales increased 0.2 percent last month as heavy price discounting by automobile manufacturers buoyed purchases of motor vehicles. Data for September was revised to show sales jumping 1.9 percent, which was the largest gain since March 2015, rather than the previously reported 1.6 percent advance. Retail sales increased 4.6 percent on an annual basis.
The slowdown in retail sales from September's robust pace largely reflected an unwinding of the boost to building materials and gasoline prices after recent hurricanes. Receipts at auto dealerships increased 0.7 percent after soaring 4.6 percent in September, supported by the deep price discounting by manufacturers. Sales at gardening and building material stores fell 1.2 percent last month after surging 3.0 percent in September.
Receipts at service stations decreased 1.2 percent in October. That followed a 6.4 percent gain in September. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.3 percent last month after climbing 0.5 percent in September. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. Last month's increase in core retail sales indicated a healthy pace of consumer spending at the start of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, increased at a 2.4 percent annualized rate in the third quarter.
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