US natural gas futures climbed on Friday as rising exports and higher than normal heating demand accelerated a decline in stockpiles that were already below normal for this time of year. Traders noted, however, that prices were up despite the latest forecasts calling for less heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures rose 4.4 cents, or 1.4 percent, to settle at $3.097 per million British thermal units. For the week, the front-month declined about 3 percent after rising about 8 percent in each of the last two weeks. Thomson Reuters projected US gas exports would average 9.6 billion cubic feet per day this week, up 28 percent from a year earlier, primarily because of much higher sales of liquefied natural gas, according to Reuters data.
Thomson Reuters, meanwhile, lowered its forecast for US gas consumption for next week to an average of 92.7 bcfd from 93.7 bcfd on Thursday. That is still up from this week's 91.8 bcfd estimate but falls short of the 93.3 bcfd projection for the last week of November. Production in the lower 48 US states averaged an all-time high of 75.4 bcfd over the past 30 days, according to Reuters data. Output peaked last week at a daily high of 76.4 bcfd and has since remained near that level.
"We see rising gas production into record high territory as a significant bearish consideration while we see the expanding storage deficits, albeit small, as a significant supportive influence," Jim Ritterbusch, president of Chicago-based energy advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a report. Analysts said utilities likely pulled 41 billion cubic feet of gas out of storage during the week ended on Nov. 17, which would be the biggest draw for that week since 2013.
That compares with a year-earlier build of 2 bcf and a five-year average decrease 26 bcf for that period. The projected weekly decrease would leave stocks at 3.731 trillion cubic feet, or about 3 percent below the 3.847 tcf five-year average for this time of year. Even though the amount of gas in storage is less than usual for this time of year, some traders still said that should be enough fuel to meet demand this winter, especially if production remains near record highs and the latest weather forecasts for the season are correct. The National Weather Service expects temperatures in December, January and February to be warmer than normal across much of the country again this year. The previous two winters were among the warmest on record.
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