Mamihlapinatapai

The word Mamihlapinatapai is derived from the Yaghan language of Tierra del Fuego, listed in The Guinness Book of World Records as the "most succinct word", and is considered one of the hardest words to translate. It allegedly refers to "a look shared by two people, each wishing that the other would initiate something that they both desire but which neither wants to begin."-Courtesy Wikipedia.
This hard pronouncing word, perhaps, aptly describes the situation our politicians find themselves in vis-à-vis, at least, the much-needed economic decisions; on second thoughts, even for development and social decisions. This situation is further worsened by an overactive media, a zealous judiciary and a brutal invisible leg, resulting in a state of paralysis for those at the helm of affairs. Pushed to the wall and forced to react, will most likely result in a swift kick in the nether regions, with all other so called pillars crashing down on the incumbents. By the way the "Invisible leg" is a riddle, and I look forward to answers via emails; cheers!
In fact, democracy in Pakistan finds itself in a classic Nash equilibrium. It would be in the best interest of all beneficiaries of democracy to cooperate and compromise, however as long as even one refuses to come to the negotiating table, it is not worth the other parties to give way or move ahead. And why will it never happen? Well because it would require a lot of trust for all parties to communicate and agree a plan to come out of this downward spiral, since anyone who subsequently reneged would tend to gain exponentially. Unfortunately, based on experiences of the last decade, most likely there is a trust deficit, to put it mildly, amongst our ruling elite.
Economically limiting this particular observation to the external front to avoid getting into an unwarranted, for today, debate on GDP-we look to be in dire straits. While a historic analysis of key decisions, perhaps over the last two decades, which landed us in this mess is advisable, not for pinning blame, but for learning from our mistakes, a sweeping statement that our democratic governments, at least, were the victims of the Nash Equilibrium is undeniable. Forced to spend, or take decisions, to keep voters and related factions happy, and to prove the opposition wrong, is probably what landed us in this quagmire.
According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) data, the trade deficit on goods alone for the four-month period ended October 2017 stands at US$ 9,739. And I feel we need to get our facts right if we are going to start taking the right decisions, notwithstanding my views on our leadership being stuck in a Nash Equilibrium. Based on SBP's data, "Imports Payments by Commodity", imports for power generation, textile, construction, electrical, telecom and other machinery stood at US$ 7.4 billion for FY17 which was 15.25% of all imports; the comparable figure for FY16 was US$ 6.8 billion, 16.43% of imports. If you add all petroleum imports to this machinery import amounts, for FY17 the combined imports were 37.11% of all imports; for FY16 they were 36.6%. The percentage has arisen for the combined imports to 40.19%, for the five month period ended November 2017, predominantly because of petroleum group, perhaps to ensure that there is no load shedding in election year; again curtsey Nash!
It is not import of machinery and imports of petroleum products alone which has landed us in this mess; our governments were forced to let us live in the lap of luxury, which we as a nation could ill afford, simply because they wanted us to continue giving them our votes, or support. Consequently, today our government needs some serious dollars and that too very quickly, if only to let the party continue; unfortunately, it cannot print dollars and cannot keep on borrowing endlessly!
The standard solution in this case perhaps, irrespective of antipathy towards any such action, is an amnesty scheme targeting dollars; and if rumours are right, will have already been announced by the time this article is published. Notwithstanding, that a favourable outcome of any such scheme depends upon how effectively it ring fences all kinds of litigations, beyond simply taxes, the likelihood of it succeeding even otherwise are largely remote. Why? Because there is a very high probability of any such initiative being challenged, at some forum or the other, immediately; the opponents of the sitting government will not let the later succeed, to their detriment.
And that was just an example. Irrespective of the efficacy of any scheme, in our supercharged partisan democracy, the likelihood of the opposition finding faults and screaming murder thereto, are close to one hundred percent.
So where is the solution? Certainly in trusting; a topic for another day!
(The writer is a chartered accountant based in Islamabad. Email: [email protected])